Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,985 交易量
$20,985 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
7%
5000亿–6000亿
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
5%
7000亿–8000亿
8%
8,000亿–9,000亿
44%
9000亿–1万亿
36%
1万亿–1.1万亿
9%
1.1万亿美元以上
5%
$20,985 交易量
$20,985 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
$16,637 交易量
7%
5000亿–6000亿
$413 交易量
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$435 交易量
5%
7000亿–8000亿
$456 交易量
8%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,008 交易量
44%
9000亿–1万亿
$971 交易量
36%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$441 交易量
9%
1.1万亿美元以上
$624 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$20,985结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$20,985结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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