Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,762 交易量
$24,762 交易量
2027-04-30
少于5000亿
3%
5000亿–6000亿
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
10%
7000亿–8000亿
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
40%
9000亿–1万亿
14%
1万亿–1.1万亿
4%
1.1万亿美元以上
2%
$24,762 交易量
$24,762 交易量
2027-04-30
少于5000亿
$16,854 交易量
3%
5000亿–6000亿
$454 交易量
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$543 交易量
10%
7000亿–8000亿
$720 交易量
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,895 交易量
40%
9000亿–1万亿
$1,509 交易量
14%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$1,572 交易量
4%
1.1万亿美元以上
$1,215 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$24,762结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$24,762结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRecent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 deficit widening to $88.6 billion amid surging AI-driven imports of semiconductors and computers alongside softer exports, have anchored trader sentiment around the $800–900 billion range for the full-year 2026 deficit. Year-to-date figures through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent narrowing versus 2025 levels, reflecting the lagged effects of 2025 tariff measures and reciprocal trade agreements that boosted exports while curbing certain inflows. Policy uncertainty from Supreme Court rulings on emergency tariffs, subsequent Section 301 adjustments, and persistent domestic demand continue to influence import volumes. With the market-implied odds favoring the $700–900 billion brackets at over 67 percent combined, participants appear to price in a modest rebound from 2025’s $932 billion outcome while discounting extremes tied to renewed trade escalation or sharp demand contraction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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