Diplomatic frictions between Israel and several nations have intensified amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet few governments have moved to declare Israeli envoys persona non grata. Spain’s permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador to Israel in March 2026, driven by opposition to Israeli policies, stopped short of expelling Israel’s representative, leaving the embassy under a chargé d’affaires. South Africa’s January 2026 expulsion of Israel’s top diplomat remains a notable exception that triggered reciprocal action, while Iran’s March incentive linking Hormuz transit rights to such expulsions has not produced follow-through from other states. Traders interpret these patterns—along with alliance obligations and escalation risks—as evidence that full expulsions are unlikely before the December 31 deadline, supporting the 61% implied probability on “No.”
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$28,988 交易量
$28,988 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,988 交易量
$28,988 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic frictions between Israel and several nations have intensified amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet few governments have moved to declare Israeli envoys persona non grata. Spain’s permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador to Israel in March 2026, driven by opposition to Israeli policies, stopped short of expelling Israel’s representative, leaving the embassy under a chargé d’affaires. South Africa’s January 2026 expulsion of Israel’s top diplomat remains a notable exception that triggered reciprocal action, while Iran’s March incentive linking Hormuz transit rights to such expulsions has not produced follow-through from other states. Traders interpret these patterns—along with alliance obligations and escalation risks—as evidence that full expulsions are unlikely before the December 31 deadline, supporting the 61% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$28,988结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic frictions between Israel and several nations have intensified amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet few governments have moved to declare Israeli envoys persona non grata. Spain’s permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador to Israel in March 2026, driven by opposition to Israeli policies, stopped short of expelling Israel’s representative, leaving the embassy under a chargé d’affaires. South Africa’s January 2026 expulsion of Israel’s top diplomat remains a notable exception that triggered reciprocal action, while Iran’s March incentive linking Hormuz transit rights to such expulsions has not produced follow-through from other states. Traders interpret these patterns—along with alliance obligations and escalation risks—as evidence that full expulsions are unlikely before the December 31 deadline, supporting the 61% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,988结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic frictions between Israel and several nations have intensified amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet few governments have moved to declare Israeli envoys persona non grata. Spain’s permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador to Israel in March 2026, driven by opposition to Israeli policies, stopped short of expelling Israel’s representative, leaving the embassy under a chargé d’affaires. South Africa’s January 2026 expulsion of Israel’s top diplomat remains a notable exception that triggered reciprocal action, while Iran’s March incentive linking Hormuz transit rights to such expulsions has not produced follow-through from other states. Traders interpret these patterns—along with alliance obligations and escalation risks—as evidence that full expulsions are unlikely before the December 31 deadline, supporting the 61% implied probability on “No.”
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题