China’s preference for sustained gray-zone coercion through record coast guard and research vessel patrols around Taiwan, rather than large-scale amphibious preparations, underpins the 96.2% trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. With only four months remaining, visible indicators of imminent conflict—such as massive troop and logistics mobilization—remain absent despite persistent PLA aircraft and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait and ADIZ. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills, reserve mobilization, and littoral defense enhancements further reinforce deterrence. While scenarios like sudden miscalculation, leadership decisions, or external shocks could still shift dynamics, the current pattern of normalized pressure short of war aligns with the market’s assessment of low near-term invasion probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$40,411,993 交易量
$40,411,993 交易量
2026-12-30
赚 3.25% 收益
是
4% 概率
$40,411,993 交易量
$40,411,993 交易量
2026-12-30
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s preference for sustained gray-zone coercion through record coast guard and research vessel patrols around Taiwan, rather than large-scale amphibious preparations, underpins the 96.2% trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. With only four months remaining, visible indicators of imminent conflict—such as massive troop and logistics mobilization—remain absent despite persistent PLA aircraft and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait and ADIZ. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills, reserve mobilization, and littoral defense enhancements further reinforce deterrence. While scenarios like sudden miscalculation, leadership decisions, or external shocks could still shift dynamics, the current pattern of normalized pressure short of war aligns with the market’s assessment of low near-term invasion probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$40,411,993结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s preference for sustained gray-zone coercion through record coast guard and research vessel patrols around Taiwan, rather than large-scale amphibious preparations, underpins the 96.2% trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. With only four months remaining, visible indicators of imminent conflict—such as massive troop and logistics mobilization—remain absent despite persistent PLA aircraft and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait and ADIZ. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills, reserve mobilization, and littoral defense enhancements further reinforce deterrence. While scenarios like sudden miscalculation, leadership decisions, or external shocks could still shift dynamics, the current pattern of normalized pressure short of war aligns with the market’s assessment of low near-term invasion probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$40,412,059结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETChina’s preference for sustained gray-zone coercion through record coast guard and research vessel patrols around Taiwan, rather than large-scale amphibious preparations, underpins the 96.2% trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. With only four months remaining, visible indicators of imminent conflict—such as massive troop and logistics mobilization—remain absent despite persistent PLA aircraft and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait and ADIZ. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills, reserve mobilization, and littoral defense enhancements further reinforce deterrence. While scenarios like sudden miscalculation, leadership decisions, or external shocks could still shift dynamics, the current pattern of normalized pressure short of war aligns with the market’s assessment of low near-term invasion probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题