Trader consensus on the Canada annual inflation market currently centers on the 2.5–2.9% range at 51.9% implied probability, reflecting the Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of 2.3% average CPI for the year, revised upward 0.3 percentage points from January due to elevated gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict. March 2026 CPI data released by Statistics Canada showed a 2.4% year-over-year increase, accelerating from 1.8% in February and underscoring near-term energy-driven pressure above the 2% target. This shift has lifted odds for outcomes above 3.0% while capping downside bets below 2.0%, as core measures remain contained and the Bank anticipates moderation toward target by 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKanada Jährliche Inflation 2026
2,5–2,9 % 46.9%
3,5–3,9 % 38.8%
2,0–2,4 % 20.0%
1,0–1,4 % 1.2%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
<1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
37%
2,0–2,4 %
20%
2,5–2,9 %
52%
3,0-3,4 %
43%
3,5–3,9 %
39%
4,0 %+
39%
2,5–2,9 % 46.9%
3,5–3,9 % 38.8%
2,0–2,4 % 20.0%
1,0–1,4 % 1.2%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
<1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
37%
2,0–2,4 %
20%
2,5–2,9 %
52%
3,0-3,4 %
43%
3,5–3,9 %
39%
4,0 %+
39%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Canada annual inflation market currently centers on the 2.5–2.9% range at 51.9% implied probability, reflecting the Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of 2.3% average CPI for the year, revised upward 0.3 percentage points from January due to elevated gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict. March 2026 CPI data released by Statistics Canada showed a 2.4% year-over-year increase, accelerating from 1.8% in February and underscoring near-term energy-driven pressure above the 2% target. This shift has lifted odds for outcomes above 3.0% while capping downside bets below 2.0%, as core measures remain contained and the Bank anticipates moderation toward target by 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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