Sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary workers, have triggered Canada's first recorded annual population decline, with Statistics Canada reporting a 0.2% drop of 103,504 people from October 2025 to January 2026, reaching 41,472,081. This stems from the federal government's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, announced in late 2025, capping new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000—down sharply from prior peaks amid housing shortages and infrastructure strains. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat growth for 2026 overall, but traders price a 61% chance of net decline for the year, reflecting sustained policy enforcement and low natural increase from births minus deaths, with quarterly estimates through year-end as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGestiegen
Gestiegen
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Sharp reductions in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary workers, have triggered Canada's first recorded annual population decline, with Statistics Canada reporting a 0.2% drop of 103,504 people from October 2025 to January 2026, reaching 41,472,081. This stems from the federal government's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, announced in late 2025, capping new temporary resident arrivals at 385,000—down sharply from prior peaks amid housing shortages and infrastructure strains. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat growth for 2026 overall, but traders price a 61% chance of net decline for the year, reflecting sustained policy enforcement and low natural increase from births minus deaths, with quarterly estimates through year-end as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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