Marat Kambolov holds a commanding lead in the South Ossetia presidential election market due to his role as acting president since June 2026, following Alan Gagloev's resignation to join Vladimir Putin's advisory team. He secured endorsements from all major parliamentary parties despite residency requirements, along with public backing from Russian leadership and Putin. Preliminary results from the September 18 vote show him receiving roughly 85 percent amid 78 percent turnout, far ahead of the other registered candidates. Trader consensus reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, unified domestic support, and external alignment in a territory heavily reliant on Russian ties. Late reversals remain possible only through official disputes over protocols or turnout validation, though the margin makes such shifts improbable.