Recent polling in the Bahia gubernatorial race shows a technical tie or narrow edge for ACM Neto of União Brasil over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT, keeping the contest tightly matched ahead of the October 4 first round. The rematch of their 2022 runoff has produced fluctuating survey results across firms, with Neto sometimes ahead by a few points and Rodrigues benefiting from structural advantages as the sitting governor. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures this uncertainty, driven by voter priorities around state economic performance, alliances with national PT leadership, and campaign positioning on infrastructure and public services. Upcoming debates and further polling releases could widen or narrow the gap, while the possibility of a second-round runoff adds layers to probability assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBahia Governor Election Winner
Bahia Governor Election Winner
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4 oct 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
38%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4 oct 2026
ACM Neto
$3,766 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,844 Vol.
38%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Bahia gubernatorial race shows a technical tie or narrow edge for ACM Neto of União Brasil over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT, keeping the contest tightly matched ahead of the October 4 first round. The rematch of their 2022 runoff has produced fluctuating survey results across firms, with Neto sometimes ahead by a few points and Rodrigues benefiting from structural advantages as the sitting governor. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures this uncertainty, driven by voter priorities around state economic performance, alliances with national PT leadership, and campaign positioning on infrastructure and public services. Upcoming debates and further polling releases could widen or narrow the gap, while the possibility of a second-round runoff adds layers to probability assessments.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$13,978Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Bahia gubernatorial race shows a technical tie or narrow edge for ACM Neto of União Brasil over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT, keeping the contest tightly matched ahead of the October 4 first round. The rematch of their 2022 runoff has produced fluctuating survey results across firms, with Neto sometimes ahead by a few points and Rodrigues benefiting from structural advantages as the sitting governor. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures this uncertainty, driven by voter priorities around state economic performance, alliances with national PT leadership, and campaign positioning on infrastructure and public services. Upcoming debates and further polling releases could widen or narrow the gap, while the possibility of a second-round runoff adds layers to probability assessments.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$13,978Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the Bahia gubernatorial race shows a technical tie or narrow edge for ACM Neto of União Brasil over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT, keeping the contest tightly matched ahead of the October 4 first round. The rematch of their 2022 runoff has produced fluctuating survey results across firms, with Neto sometimes ahead by a few points and Rodrigues benefiting from structural advantages as the sitting governor. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures this uncertainty, driven by voter priorities around state economic performance, alliances with national PT leadership, and campaign positioning on infrastructure and public services. Upcoming debates and further polling releases could widen or narrow the gap, while the possibility of a second-round runoff adds layers to probability assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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