Skip to main content

Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá

Lula 56%

Flavio Bolsonaro 45%

Hertz Dias <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket

$19,904 Vol.

Lula 56%

Flavio Bolsonaro 45%

Hertz Dias <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket

$19,904 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$4,392 Vol.

56%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$4,199 Vol.

45%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$1,359 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,565 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$750 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$821 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,086 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$872 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,071 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$1,024 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$1,020 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$735 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$1,009 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the highest implied probability for first place in Amapá's October 4 first-round presidential vote, supported by recent state-level surveys showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins. Quaest polling from late September placed Lula at 37% and Flávio at 33%, consistent with earlier Real Time Big Data and other Amapá samples that highlight the incumbent's edge in the northern state. National polarization, local campaign events tied to federal initiatives, and strong PT-aligned organization contribute to this positioning, while Flávio's support draws from bolsonarista voters but trails in the region. Remaining candidates register far lower shares, leaving the contest between these two frontrunners as the primary driver of trader assessments ahead of election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$19,904
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the highest implied probability for first place in Amapá's October 4 first-round presidential vote, supported by recent state-level surveys showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins. Quaest polling from late September placed Lula at 37% and Flávio at 33%, consistent with earlier Real Time Big Data and other Amapá samples that highlight the incumbent's edge in the northern state. National polarization, local campaign events tied to federal initiatives, and strong PT-aligned organization contribute to this positioning, while Flávio's support draws from bolsonarista voters but trails in the region. Remaining candidates register far lower shares, leaving the contest between these two frontrunners as the primary driver of trader assessments ahead of election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$19,904
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Relacionado

icon for ¿Flavio Bolsonaro obtendrá la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en São Paulo?

¿Flavio Bolsonaro obtendrá la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en São Paulo?

95%
Sí
icon for ¿Obtendrá Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Pará?

¿Obtendrá Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Pará?

93%
Sí
icon for ¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?

¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?

67%
Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lula" con 56%, seguido de "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 45%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 56¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá" ha generado $19.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá" es "Lula" con 56%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 45%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Amapá" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.