Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling and party consolidation have positioned him as the clear frontrunner on the right. As the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, he benefits from unified conservative support after his father’s legal disqualification. Multiple August surveys place Lula da Silva first in the low-to-mid 40s while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—registering well below 10 percent. This gap has held steady despite modest narrowing in Lula’s second-round margins, leaving limited room for another contender to overtake Flávio before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,232 Vol.
$4,607,232 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,232 Vol.
$4,607,232 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling and party consolidation have positioned him as the clear frontrunner on the right. As the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, he benefits from unified conservative support after his father’s legal disqualification. Multiple August surveys place Lula da Silva first in the low-to-mid 40s while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—registering well below 10 percent. This gap has held steady despite modest narrowing in Lula’s second-round margins, leaving limited room for another contender to overtake Flávio before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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