The market-implied probability of 100% for a 76-77°F high in New York City on May 16 reflects the official daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport station, as reported by the National Weather Service. This outcome aligns with mid-May climatological norms, where average highs hover near 70°F, and recent model runs from NOAA showed stable southerly flow without significant warming or heat advection. Forecasters noted no notable model disagreements in the final 48-hour guidance, keeping projected peaks firmly in that narrow band. While historical records for the date reach 90°F, current conditions and observational data left little room for deviation, though minor station calibration adjustments could theoretically shift resolution if discrepancies arise in post-event verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on May 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 16?
76-77°F 100.0%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$181,945 Vol.
$181,945 Vol.
16 may 2026
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 100.0%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$181,945 Vol.
$181,945 Vol.
16 may 2026
76-77°F
$45,213 Vol.
100%
78-79°F
$27,088 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$31,114 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$22,880 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$16,863 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability of 100% for a 76-77°F high in New York City on May 16 reflects the official daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport station, as reported by the National Weather Service. This outcome aligns with mid-May climatological norms, where average highs hover near 70°F, and recent model runs from NOAA showed stable southerly flow without significant warming or heat advection. Forecasters noted no notable model disagreements in the final 48-hour guidance, keeping projected peaks firmly in that narrow band. While historical records for the date reach 90°F, current conditions and observational data left little room for deviation, though minor station calibration adjustments could theoretically shift resolution if discrepancies arise in post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$181,945Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability of 100% for a 76-77°F high in New York City on May 16 reflects the official daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport station, as reported by the National Weather Service. This outcome aligns with mid-May climatological norms, where average highs hover near 70°F, and recent model runs from NOAA showed stable southerly flow without significant warming or heat advection. Forecasters noted no notable model disagreements in the final 48-hour guidance, keeping projected peaks firmly in that narrow band. While historical records for the date reach 90°F, current conditions and observational data left little room for deviation, though minor station calibration adjustments could theoretically shift resolution if discrepancies arise in post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$181,945Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The market-implied probability of 100% for a 76-77°F high in New York City on May 16 reflects the official daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport station, as reported by the National Weather Service. This outcome aligns with mid-May climatological norms, where average highs hover near 70°F, and recent model runs from NOAA showed stable southerly flow without significant warming or heat advection. Forecasters noted no notable model disagreements in the final 48-hour guidance, keeping projected peaks firmly in that narrow band. While historical records for the date reach 90°F, current conditions and observational data left little room for deviation, though minor station calibration adjustments could theoretically shift resolution if discrepancies arise in post-event verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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