Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest forecast for Toronto on May 16 projects a daytime high near 21–22 °C under partly cloudy skies, with a 40 % chance of showers that could limit afternoon warming and prevent the mercury from climbing higher. This guidance, combined with current surface observations and model consensus showing modest instability and southwest flow, has driven trader sentiment strongly toward the 21 °C outcome at 85.5 % implied probability. Historical May averages for Toronto Pearson hover around 18 °C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly that aligns with the tightly clustered probabilities around 21–22 °C. Updated model runs and official temperature readings through the afternoon will determine whether showers suppress the peak or allow brief clearing to push readings slightly higher.