Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition maintains a firm parliamentary majority in Italy, enabling her government to withstand the March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reform without triggering immediate collapse or early elections. Recent months have featured coalition discipline, pragmatic policy adjustments on energy and migration, and no active no-confidence challenges or partner defections ahead of the 2027 vote. Traders assign only a 3 percent chance of her departure by June 30 because scheduled events such as EU summits and routine legislative business show no signs of destabilizing the administration in the coming weeks. While an unforeseen health event, major scandal, or sudden coalition fracture could still shift dynamics, current institutional stability and polling resilience support the prevailing consensus that she will remain prime minister through the resolution window.