Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election market at 94.5% implied probability. His position stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent surveys from Neokemp, IPC, and Mapa showing him at 52–55% in the first round against fragmented opposition led by João Rodrigues (PSD). Mello’s 2022 landslide victory of over 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL’s August 1, 2026, convention formalizing his re-election bid alongside vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva. Low single-digit odds for challengers like Gelson Merisio, Décio Lima, and others reflect limited momentum or name recognition in current voter intention data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign scandals, significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, or unexpected coalition realignments before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJorginho Mello 95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 4.0%
João Rodrigues 1.7%
Marcos Vieira <1%
$109,246 Vol.
$109,246 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jorginho Mello
95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
4%
João Rodrigues
2%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jorginho Mello 95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 4.0%
João Rodrigues 1.7%
Marcos Vieira <1%
$109,246 Vol.
$109,246 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Jorginho Mello
$24,870 Vol.
95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$14,867 Vol.
4%
João Rodrigues
$1,903 Vol.
2%
Marcos Vieira
$1,225 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Gelson Merisio
$1,299 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$62,873 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election market at 94.5% implied probability. His position stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent surveys from Neokemp, IPC, and Mapa showing him at 52–55% in the first round against fragmented opposition led by João Rodrigues (PSD). Mello’s 2022 landslide victory of over 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL’s August 1, 2026, convention formalizing his re-election bid alongside vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva. Low single-digit odds for challengers like Gelson Merisio, Décio Lima, and others reflect limited momentum or name recognition in current voter intention data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign scandals, significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, or unexpected coalition realignments before the vote.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volumen
$109,246Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election market at 94.5% implied probability. His position stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent surveys from Neokemp, IPC, and Mapa showing him at 52–55% in the first round against fragmented opposition led by João Rodrigues (PSD). Mello’s 2022 landslide victory of over 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL’s August 1, 2026, convention formalizing his re-election bid alongside vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva. Low single-digit odds for challengers like Gelson Merisio, Décio Lima, and others reflect limited momentum or name recognition in current voter intention data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign scandals, significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, or unexpected coalition realignments before the vote.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$109,246Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election market at 94.5% implied probability. His position stems from consistent polling dominance, with recent surveys from Neokemp, IPC, and Mapa showing him at 52–55% in the first round against fragmented opposition led by João Rodrigues (PSD). Mello’s 2022 landslide victory of over 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL’s August 1, 2026, convention formalizing his re-election bid alongside vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva. Low single-digit odds for challengers like Gelson Merisio, Décio Lima, and others reflect limited momentum or name recognition in current voter intention data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign scandals, significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, or unexpected coalition realignments before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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