The National Hurricane Center's first daily Tropical Weather Outlook of 2026, issued May 15, reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances across the Atlantic basin, with formation not expected through May 22—bolstering trader consensus at 98.2% for no hurricane by May 31. This reflects climatological rarity, as only four Atlantic hurricanes have formed in May since 1851, due to sea surface temperatures typically below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification and elevated vertical wind shear shredding early systems. Slightly above-normal main development region ocean temperatures offer minor potential, but weak La Niña-to-neutral ENSO conditions favor quiet patterns. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen African wave organizing quickly, tracked via upcoming NHC advisories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$49,148 Vol.
$49,148 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$49,148 Vol.
$49,148 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's first daily Tropical Weather Outlook of 2026, issued May 15, reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances across the Atlantic basin, with formation not expected through May 22—bolstering trader consensus at 98.2% for no hurricane by May 31. This reflects climatological rarity, as only four Atlantic hurricanes have formed in May since 1851, due to sea surface temperatures typically below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification and elevated vertical wind shear shredding early systems. Slightly above-normal main development region ocean temperatures offer minor potential, but weak La Niña-to-neutral ENSO conditions favor quiet patterns. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen African wave organizing quickly, tracked via upcoming NHC advisories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$49,148Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's first daily Tropical Weather Outlook of 2026, issued May 15, reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances across the Atlantic basin, with formation not expected through May 22—bolstering trader consensus at 98.2% for no hurricane by May 31. This reflects climatological rarity, as only four Atlantic hurricanes have formed in May since 1851, due to sea surface temperatures typically below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification and elevated vertical wind shear shredding early systems. Slightly above-normal main development region ocean temperatures offer minor potential, but weak La Niña-to-neutral ENSO conditions favor quiet patterns. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen African wave organizing quickly, tracked via upcoming NHC advisories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$49,148Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's first daily Tropical Weather Outlook of 2026, issued May 15, reports no active tropical cyclones or disturbances across the Atlantic basin, with formation not expected through May 22—bolstering trader consensus at 98.2% for no hurricane by May 31. This reflects climatological rarity, as only four Atlantic hurricanes have formed in May since 1851, due to sea surface temperatures typically below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification and elevated vertical wind shear shredding early systems. Slightly above-normal main development region ocean temperatures offer minor potential, but weak La Niña-to-neutral ENSO conditions favor quiet patterns. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen African wave organizing quickly, tracked via upcoming NHC advisories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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