Brazil’s central bank has delivered five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts through mid-September, bringing the benchmark rate to 13.75 percent amid cooling headline inflation and clearer signs of economic moderation. The latest IPCA-15 reading showed a 0.70 percent monthly increase, lifting the 12-month rate to 4.47 percent, while the BCB’s September projections placed inflation near the 3 percent target over the 2028 policy horizon and trimmed 2026 GDP growth forecasts. These developments, combined with a data-dependent stance ahead of the presidential election, underpin trader consensus around another 25-basis-point reduction by year-end, though external shocks from Middle East conflicts and fiscal stimulus keep the path uncertain and support a meaningful probability of no change in December.