Traders assign an 85% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting because recent communications from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicate that rate hikes are not required in June or July, while inflation remains elevated at 3.3% amid Middle East energy-price pressures. The current 3.75% Bank Rate, held at the April 30 meeting, reflects the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance as it monitors oil-price volatility and labor-market data. A modest 14.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase captures lingering market pricing for a potential hawkish shift if incoming CPI prints stay sticky, though forward-looking futures suggest any tightening is more likely later in 2026. Market-implied odds align with the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next policy statement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
No change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$145,299 Vol.
$145,299 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
85%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$145,299 Vol.
$145,299 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$24,794 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$25,124 Vol.
<1%
No change
$30,695 Vol.
85%
25 bps increase
$40,795 Vol.
15%
50+ bps increase
$23,892 Vol.
1%
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 85% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting because recent communications from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicate that rate hikes are not required in June or July, while inflation remains elevated at 3.3% amid Middle East energy-price pressures. The current 3.75% Bank Rate, held at the April 30 meeting, reflects the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance as it monitors oil-price volatility and labor-market data. A modest 14.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase captures lingering market pricing for a potential hawkish shift if incoming CPI prints stay sticky, though forward-looking futures suggest any tightening is more likely later in 2026. Market-implied odds align with the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next policy statement.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$145,299End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 85% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting because recent communications from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicate that rate hikes are not required in June or July, while inflation remains elevated at 3.3% amid Middle East energy-price pressures. The current 3.75% Bank Rate, held at the April 30 meeting, reflects the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance as it monitors oil-price volatility and labor-market data. A modest 14.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase captures lingering market pricing for a potential hawkish shift if incoming CPI prints stay sticky, though forward-looking futures suggest any tightening is more likely later in 2026. Market-implied odds align with the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next policy statement.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$145,299End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 85% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting because recent communications from Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicate that rate hikes are not required in June or July, while inflation remains elevated at 3.3% amid Middle East energy-price pressures. The current 3.75% Bank Rate, held at the April 30 meeting, reflects the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance as it monitors oil-price volatility and labor-market data. A modest 14.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase captures lingering market pricing for a potential hawkish shift if incoming CPI prints stay sticky, though forward-looking futures suggest any tightening is more likely later in 2026. Market-implied odds align with the central bank’s data-dependent approach ahead of the next policy statement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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