Recent polls, including Futura (May 4–8) showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38.1% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.4%, alongside Ideia (May 1–5) with Lula at 40% and Flávio at 36%, consistently position Lula as first-round leader and Flávio as runner-up, fueling trader consensus pricing Flávio at 59.5% for second place on Polymarket. Flávio's ascent reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father's endorsement and amid a fragmented opposition field, where Romeu Zema polls 3–4% (9.6% market odds). Lula's 16% for second underscores his incumbency edge, though high undecided rates (9–19%) and a May 13 Reuters runoff tie signal volatility before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 54%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Romeu Zema 9.6%
Renan Santos 5.8%
$3,471,512 Vol.
$3,471,512 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
54%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
Romeu Zema
10%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 54%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%
Romeu Zema 9.6%
Renan Santos 5.8%
$3,471,512 Vol.
$3,471,512 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$53,967 Vol.
54%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$66,190 Vol.
16%
Romeu Zema
$251,706 Vol.
10%
Renan Santos
$993,497 Vol.
6%
Fernando Haddad
$651,099 Vol.
3%
Camilo Santana
$55,748 Vol.
2%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,144 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$286,585 Vol.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$55,107 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$106,814 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$642,517 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$48,286 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$27,879 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$73,092 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$40,385 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Futura (May 4–8) showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38.1% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.4%, alongside Ideia (May 1–5) with Lula at 40% and Flávio at 36%, consistently position Lula as first-round leader and Flávio as runner-up, fueling trader consensus pricing Flávio at 59.5% for second place on Polymarket. Flávio's ascent reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father's endorsement and amid a fragmented opposition field, where Romeu Zema polls 3–4% (9.6% market odds). Lula's 16% for second underscores his incumbency edge, though high undecided rates (9–19%) and a May 13 Reuters runoff tie signal volatility before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$3,471,512End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Futura (May 4–8) showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38.1% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.4%, alongside Ideia (May 1–5) with Lula at 40% and Flávio at 36%, consistently position Lula as first-round leader and Flávio as runner-up, fueling trader consensus pricing Flávio at 59.5% for second place on Polymarket. Flávio's ascent reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father's endorsement and amid a fragmented opposition field, where Romeu Zema polls 3–4% (9.6% market odds). Lula's 16% for second underscores his incumbency edge, though high undecided rates (9–19%) and a May 13 Reuters runoff tie signal volatility before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,471,512End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Futura (May 4–8) showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38.1% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.4%, alongside Ideia (May 1–5) with Lula at 40% and Flávio at 36%, consistently position Lula as first-round leader and Flávio as runner-up, fueling trader consensus pricing Flávio at 59.5% for second place on Polymarket. Flávio's ascent reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father's endorsement and amid a fragmented opposition field, where Romeu Zema polls 3–4% (9.6% market odds). Lula's 16% for second underscores his incumbency edge, though high undecided rates (9–19%) and a May 13 Reuters runoff tie signal volatility before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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