In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRomeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 32%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.3%
$282,389 Vol.
$282,389 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Romeu Zema
32%
Renan Santos
32%
Ronaldo Caiado
19%
Michelle Bolsonaro
5%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro
3%
Camilo Santana
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Eduardo Leite
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Romeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 32%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.3%
$282,389 Vol.
$282,389 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Romeu Zema
$10,773 Vol.
32%
Renan Santos
$63,651 Vol.
32%
Ronaldo Caiado
$16,728 Vol.
19%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$4,817 Vol.
5%
Fernando Haddad
$14,354 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$7,036 Vol.
3%
Camilo Santana
$6,116 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,328 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$4,092 Vol.
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$5,286 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$4,260 Vol.
1%
Tereza Cristina
$654 Vol.
1%
Eduardo Leite
$2,559 Vol.
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$39,622 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$93,224 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$4,536 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$354 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$282,389End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$282,389End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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