Databricks' elevated 64% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from CEO Ali Ghodsi's June 2026 statements labeling the year a poor time to list amid a crowded calendar featuring SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, prompting a shift toward additional private funding rounds. Recent secondary market activity has lifted implied valuations to around $190 billion as of mid-August 2026, up from the $134 billion Series L mark, supported by annualized revenue run rate growth to $6.9 billion. The clustered 30-35% probabilities across $150 billion–$450 billion+ closing market cap brackets reflect uncertainty over timing, public-market multiples for high-growth AI data platforms, and potential resolution thresholds if an offering occurs later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$150B 72%
$350B-$400B 70%
$300B-$350B 69%
$400B-$450B 69%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
72%
$150B-$200B
61%
$200B-$250B
61%
$250B-$300B
61%
$300B-$350B
69%
$350B-$400B
70%
$400B-$450B
69%
$450B+
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
<$150B 72%
$350B-$400B 70%
$300B-$350B 69%
$400B-$450B 69%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$0 Vol.
72%
$150B-$200B
$0 Vol.
61%
$200B-$250B
$18 Vol.
61%
$250B-$300B
$18 Vol.
61%
$300B-$350B
$18 Vol.
69%
$350B-$400B
$18 Vol.
70%
$400B-$450B
$0 Vol.
69%
$450B+
$0 Vol.
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$172 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' elevated 64% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from CEO Ali Ghodsi's June 2026 statements labeling the year a poor time to list amid a crowded calendar featuring SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, prompting a shift toward additional private funding rounds. Recent secondary market activity has lifted implied valuations to around $190 billion as of mid-August 2026, up from the $134 billion Series L mark, supported by annualized revenue run rate growth to $6.9 billion. The clustered 30-35% probabilities across $150 billion–$450 billion+ closing market cap brackets reflect uncertainty over timing, public-market multiples for high-growth AI data platforms, and potential resolution thresholds if an offering occurs later.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$244End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' elevated 64% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from CEO Ali Ghodsi's June 2026 statements labeling the year a poor time to list amid a crowded calendar featuring SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, prompting a shift toward additional private funding rounds. Recent secondary market activity has lifted implied valuations to around $190 billion as of mid-August 2026, up from the $134 billion Series L mark, supported by annualized revenue run rate growth to $6.9 billion. The clustered 30-35% probabilities across $150 billion–$450 billion+ closing market cap brackets reflect uncertainty over timing, public-market multiples for high-growth AI data platforms, and potential resolution thresholds if an offering occurs later.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$244End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks' elevated 64% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from CEO Ali Ghodsi's June 2026 statements labeling the year a poor time to list amid a crowded calendar featuring SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, prompting a shift toward additional private funding rounds. Recent secondary market activity has lifted implied valuations to around $190 billion as of mid-August 2026, up from the $134 billion Series L mark, supported by annualized revenue run rate growth to $6.9 billion. The clustered 30-35% probabilities across $150 billion–$450 billion+ closing market cap brackets reflect uncertainty over timing, public-market multiples for high-growth AI data platforms, and potential resolution thresholds if an offering occurs later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions