Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 8-10, driven by his established posting cadence of roughly 10-20 posts daily when engaged with company updates or lighter replies. Recent activity around Grok builds, SpaceX visuals, and Tesla-related commentary shows sustained momentum without the high-volume political cycles that push daily counts higher. Weekend windows often moderate output compared to midweek news spikes, keeping the 65-89 band secondary at 27.5% while lower buckets reflect the risk of a quieter stretch. No major product launches or controversies are scheduled to disrupt the baseline before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 48%
65-89 26%
<40 21%
90-114 6%
NEW
$20,390 Vol.
NEW
$20,390 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
<40
21%
40-64
48%
65-89
26%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
65-89 26%
<40 21%
90-114 6%
NEW
$20,390 Vol.
NEW
$20,390 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
<40
$1,086 Vol.
21%
40-64
$1,204 Vol.
48%
65-89
$1,980 Vol.
26%
90-114
$1,800 Vol.
6%
115-139
$2,484 Vol.
1%
140-164
$705 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$728 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,943 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$3,176 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,285 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 8-10, driven by his established posting cadence of roughly 10-20 posts daily when engaged with company updates or lighter replies. Recent activity around Grok builds, SpaceX visuals, and Tesla-related commentary shows sustained momentum without the high-volume political cycles that push daily counts higher. Weekend windows often moderate output compared to midweek news spikes, keeping the 65-89 band secondary at 27.5% while lower buckets reflect the risk of a quieter stretch. No major product launches or controversies are scheduled to disrupt the baseline before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$20,390End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 8-10, driven by his established posting cadence of roughly 10-20 posts daily when engaged with company updates or lighter replies. Recent activity around Grok builds, SpaceX visuals, and Tesla-related commentary shows sustained momentum without the high-volume political cycles that push daily counts higher. Weekend windows often moderate output compared to midweek news spikes, keeping the 65-89 band secondary at 27.5% while lower buckets reflect the risk of a quieter stretch. No major product launches or controversies are scheduled to disrupt the baseline before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$20,390End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 47.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 8-10, driven by his established posting cadence of roughly 10-20 posts daily when engaged with company updates or lighter replies. Recent activity around Grok builds, SpaceX visuals, and Tesla-related commentary shows sustained momentum without the high-volume political cycles that push daily counts higher. Weekend windows often moderate output compared to midweek news spikes, keeping the 65-89 band secondary at 27.5% while lower buckets reflect the risk of a quieter stretch. No major product launches or controversies are scheduled to disrupt the baseline before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions