Recent FOMC decisions have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, with the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in both its June and July 2026 meetings. The July vote passed 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, reflecting concerns over elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%—driven partly by energy and supply factors. A resilient labor market, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains, alongside economic expansion, has supported the pause consensus, while recent cooler core inflation readings and softer payroll data have further tilted market-implied odds toward no changes through September. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing limited immediate policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$743,987 Vol.
$743,987 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
23%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$743,987 Vol.
$743,987 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,888 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$76,949 Vol.
<1%
Other
$320,274 Vol.
23%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC decisions have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, with the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in both its June and July 2026 meetings. The July vote passed 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, reflecting concerns over elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%—driven partly by energy and supply factors. A resilient labor market, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains, alongside economic expansion, has supported the pause consensus, while recent cooler core inflation readings and softer payroll data have further tilted market-implied odds toward no changes through September. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing limited immediate policy shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$743,987End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC decisions have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, with the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in both its June and July 2026 meetings. The July vote passed 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, reflecting concerns over elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%—driven partly by energy and supply factors. A resilient labor market, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains, alongside economic expansion, has supported the pause consensus, while recent cooler core inflation readings and softer payroll data have further tilted market-implied odds toward no changes through September. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing limited immediate policy shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$743,987End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC decisions have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy, with the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in both its June and July 2026 meetings. The July vote passed 9-3 amid three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, reflecting concerns over elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%—driven partly by energy and supply factors. A resilient labor market, with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains, alongside economic expansion, has supported the pause consensus, while recent cooler core inflation readings and softer payroll data have further tilted market-implied odds toward no changes through September. The September 15-16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with futures pricing limited immediate policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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