Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500, P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels for all 12 regular appropriations bills through December 11. The measure cleared the Senate 90-6 in August and the House 370-48 on September 1, reflecting bipartisan reluctance to risk another shutdown ahead of the November midterms after multiple 2025-2026 funding gaps. No FY2027 regular appropriations bills have advanced to completion, so the CR supplies the statutory authority to maintain operations past October 1. Trader consensus near 99% against a lapse on that date tracks this enacted extension; the only remaining theoretical risks involve unforeseen procedural reversals or court actions before the new fiscal year begins, both viewed as negligible given the law's finality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
1% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500, P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels for all 12 regular appropriations bills through December 11. The measure cleared the Senate 90-6 in August and the House 370-48 on September 1, reflecting bipartisan reluctance to risk another shutdown ahead of the November midterms after multiple 2025-2026 funding gaps. No FY2027 regular appropriations bills have advanced to completion, so the CR supplies the statutory authority to maintain operations past October 1. Trader consensus near 99% against a lapse on that date tracks this enacted extension; the only remaining theoretical risks involve unforeseen procedural reversals or court actions before the new fiscal year begins, both viewed as negligible given the law's finality.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,081End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500, P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels for all 12 regular appropriations bills through December 11. The measure cleared the Senate 90-6 in August and the House 370-48 on September 1, reflecting bipartisan reluctance to risk another shutdown ahead of the November midterms after multiple 2025-2026 funding gaps. No FY2027 regular appropriations bills have advanced to completion, so the CR supplies the statutory authority to maintain operations past October 1. Trader consensus near 99% against a lapse on that date tracks this enacted extension; the only remaining theoretical risks involve unforeseen procedural reversals or court actions before the new fiscal year begins, both viewed as negligible given the law's finality.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,081End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress enacted and President Trump signed a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500, P.L. 119-103) on September 2, 2026, extending FY2026 funding levels for all 12 regular appropriations bills through December 11. The measure cleared the Senate 90-6 in August and the House 370-48 on September 1, reflecting bipartisan reluctance to risk another shutdown ahead of the November midterms after multiple 2025-2026 funding gaps. No FY2027 regular appropriations bills have advanced to completion, so the CR supplies the statutory authority to maintain operations past October 1. Trader consensus near 99% against a lapse on that date tracks this enacted extension; the only remaining theoretical risks involve unforeseen procedural reversals or court actions before the new fiscal year begins, both viewed as negligible given the law's finality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions