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icon for FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Republican Primary

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Republican Primary

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

Randy Fine 85%

Dan Bilzerian 9.2%

Aaron Baker 5.3%

Charles Gambaro <1%

Polymarket

$149,492 Vol.

Randy Fine 85%

Dan Bilzerian 9.2%

Aaron Baker 5.3%

Charles Gambaro <1%

Polymarket

$149,492 Vol.

Randy Fine

$15,904 Vol.

85%

Dan Bilzerian

$48,509 Vol.

9%

Aaron Baker

$15,722 Vol.

5%

Charles Gambaro

$11,391 Vol.

<1%

Alexandra Van Cleef

$27,835 Vol.

<1%

Joshua Vasquez

$10,983 Vol.

<1%

Ernest Audino

$19,148 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Randy Fine holds a commanding position in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District, driven by his decisive 2025 special election victory, dominant early fundraising, and broad establishment support including prior Trump endorsement. Trader consensus reflects this incumbency advantage in a solidly Republican district, where low-turnout primaries typically favor sitting members with proven campaign infrastructure. Dan Bilzerian's April 2026 entry as a high-profile influencer challenger introduced modest name recognition but limited traditional political experience or local organization, keeping his odds well behind. Other candidates such as Aaron Baker and Charles Gambaro remain marginal due to weaker resources and visibility. Upcoming filing deadlines and any late endorsements could still shape final positioning before the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$149,492
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Randy Fine holds a commanding position in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 6th Congressional District, driven by his decisive 2025 special election victory, dominant early fundraising, and broad establishment support including prior Trump endorsement. Trader consensus reflects this incumbency advantage in a solidly Republican district, where low-turnout primaries typically favor sitting members with proven campaign infrastructure. Dan Bilzerian's April 2026 entry as a high-profile influencer challenger introduced modest name recognition but limited traditional political experience or local organization, keeping his odds well behind. Other candidates such as Aaron Baker and Charles Gambaro remain marginal due to weaker resources and visibility. Upcoming filing deadlines and any late endorsements could still shape final positioning before the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$149,492
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Randy Fine" at 85%, followed by "Dan Bilzerian" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $149.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" is "Randy Fine" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bilzerian" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.