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Elections·Primaries

TX-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for TX-19 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

TX-19 Republican Primary Winner

Tom Sell 98.8%

Abraham Enriquez <1%

Matthew Smith <1%

Ryan Zink <1%

Polymarket

$72,806 Vol.

Tom Sell 98.8%

Abraham Enriquez <1%

Matthew Smith <1%

Ryan Zink <1%

Polymarket

$72,806 Vol.

Tom Sell

$47,338 Vol.

99%

Abraham Enriquez

$11,040 Vol.

1%

Matthew Smith

$3,285 Vol.

<1%

Ryan Zink

$1,932 Vol.

<1%

Jason Corley

$1,866 Vol.

<1%

Donald May

$3,931 Vol.

<1%

James Barbee

$3,414 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Tom Sell's 98.8% implied probability as Republican primary winner for Texas's 19th Congressional District reflects his dominant 40.4% first-round performance on March 3—more than double Abraham Enriquez's 18.7%—in the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington.** Superior fundraising ($1.76 million raised and $692,000 cash on hand as of late March versus Enriquez's $530,000 and $151,000) funds robust ground efforts, complemented by endorsements from agricultural groups like Texas Farm Bureau, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, State Rep. Carl Tepper, and most primary opponents. Recent runoff debates this week highlighted Sell's local West Texas roots and policy experience against Enriquez's Trump-aligned national conservatism, backed by Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. With early voting starting May 18 ahead of the May 26 runoff in this solidly Republican district, traders anticipate consolidation around Sell barring a late scandal, Trump endorsement for Enriquez, or turnout surprise.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$72,806
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Tom Sell's 98.8% implied probability as Republican primary winner for Texas's 19th Congressional District reflects his dominant 40.4% first-round performance on March 3—more than double Abraham Enriquez's 18.7%—in the open seat left by retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington.** Superior fundraising ($1.76 million raised and $692,000 cash on hand as of late March versus Enriquez's $530,000 and $151,000) funds robust ground efforts, complemented by endorsements from agricultural groups like Texas Farm Bureau, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, State Rep. Carl Tepper, and most primary opponents. Recent runoff debates this week highlighted Sell's local West Texas roots and policy experience against Enriquez's Trump-aligned national conservatism, backed by Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. With early voting starting May 18 ahead of the May 26 runoff in this solidly Republican district, traders anticipate consolidation around Sell barring a late scandal, Trump endorsement for Enriquez, or turnout surprise.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$72,806
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Sell" at 99%, followed by "Abraham Enriquez" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $72.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Tom Sell" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abraham Enriquez" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.