Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward a 28°C daily maximum in Amsterdam on August 12, supported by a building high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm-air advection and stronger boundary-layer heating. This setup has lifted temperatures 5–7°C above the long-term August climatological average high near 21–22°C. Modest variations in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C within plausible model spreads, while official verification later today will resolve the outcome. Fresh overnight model runs and surface observations should further tighten the range ahead of final KNMI reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,630 Vol.
$51,630 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$51,630 Vol.
$51,630 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$1,101 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,767 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,303 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,443 Vol.
No
27°C
$12,217 Vol.
No
28°C
$14,927 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$8,201 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,294 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,936 Vol.
No
32°C
$539 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$903 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward a 28°C daily maximum in Amsterdam on August 12, supported by a building high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm-air advection and stronger boundary-layer heating. This setup has lifted temperatures 5–7°C above the long-term August climatological average high near 21–22°C. Modest variations in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C within plausible model spreads, while official verification later today will resolve the outcome. Fresh overnight model runs and surface observations should further tighten the range ahead of final KNMI reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$51,630End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward a 28°C daily maximum in Amsterdam on August 12, supported by a building high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm-air advection and stronger boundary-layer heating. This setup has lifted temperatures 5–7°C above the long-term August climatological average high near 21–22°C. Modest variations in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C within plausible model spreads, while official verification later today will resolve the outcome. Fresh overnight model runs and surface observations should further tighten the range ahead of final KNMI reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,630End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from KNMI and the Met Office have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward a 28°C daily maximum in Amsterdam on August 12, supported by a building high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm-air advection and stronger boundary-layer heating. This setup has lifted temperatures 5–7°C above the long-term August climatological average high near 21–22°C. Modest variations in cloud-cover timing, mixing depth, and potential sea-breeze effects keep 27°C and 29°C within plausible model spreads, while official verification later today will resolve the outcome. Fresh overnight model runs and surface observations should further tighten the range ahead of final KNMI reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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