Current forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Chicago's July 12 high will likely fall near the climatological normal of 84.8°F, with trader sentiment split between the 84-85°F and 86-87°F bins due to modest uncertainty in afternoon conditions. Key differentiating factors include the strength of any lake breeze moderating temperatures along the shoreline, potential for scattered convection or increased cloud cover reducing peak heating, and subtle shifts in the position of a weak frontal boundary. Historical analogs show mid-July highs in this range occur frequently, but small errors in model timing or moisture can swing the observed maximum across bin thresholds. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on July 12?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 12?
86-87°F 37%
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
35%
86-87°F
37%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 37%
84-85°F 35%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
79°F or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$94 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$56 Vol.
35%
86-87°F
$112 Vol.
37%
88-89°F
$195 Vol.
18%
90-91°F
$139 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$274 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$129 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$222 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$245 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Chicago's July 12 high will likely fall near the climatological normal of 84.8°F, with trader sentiment split between the 84-85°F and 86-87°F bins due to modest uncertainty in afternoon conditions. Key differentiating factors include the strength of any lake breeze moderating temperatures along the shoreline, potential for scattered convection or increased cloud cover reducing peak heating, and subtle shifts in the position of a weak frontal boundary. Historical analogs show mid-July highs in this range occur frequently, but small errors in model timing or moisture can swing the observed maximum across bin thresholds. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,728End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Chicago's July 12 high will likely fall near the climatological normal of 84.8°F, with trader sentiment split between the 84-85°F and 86-87°F bins due to modest uncertainty in afternoon conditions. Key differentiating factors include the strength of any lake breeze moderating temperatures along the shoreline, potential for scattered convection or increased cloud cover reducing peak heating, and subtle shifts in the position of a weak frontal boundary. Historical analogs show mid-July highs in this range occur frequently, but small errors in model timing or moisture can swing the observed maximum across bin thresholds. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,728End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NOAA and other models indicate Chicago's July 12 high will likely fall near the climatological normal of 84.8°F, with trader sentiment split between the 84-85°F and 86-87°F bins due to modest uncertainty in afternoon conditions. Key differentiating factors include the strength of any lake breeze moderating temperatures along the shoreline, potential for scattered convection or increased cloud cover reducing peak heating, and subtle shifts in the position of a weak frontal boundary. Historical analogs show mid-July highs in this range occur frequently, but small errors in model timing or moisture can swing the observed maximum across bin thresholds. Updated National Weather Service guidance and afternoon observations will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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