Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 Vol.
$34,334 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,334 Vol.
$34,334 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
$250 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,705 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,854 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,139 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,076 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,564 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,104 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,783 Vol.
No
31°C
$798 Vol.
No
32°C
$524 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$536 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$34,334End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,334End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from major agencies position a 27°C maximum for Istanbul on August 19 under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions, with Black Sea surface temperatures near 25°C and moderate northerly flow suppressing additional warming. This forecast stability, absent strong downslope or föhn effects, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for 27°C as the resolution outcome. Updated model runs ahead of peak afternoon heating remain the key catalyst, with traders weighting the narrow uncertainty range heavily. A shift in steering patterns or unexpected southerly advection could realistically push readings to 28–29°C, though current observational trends and historical analogs for the date make such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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