Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models place Madrid’s August 17 maximum near 36–37 °C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable subtropical ridge, positioning 38 °C as the most probable outcome at 79.5 % market-implied odds. Historical August climatology shows typical highs of 32–34 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended 2–3 °C above average without signaling an extreme heat event. The narrow spread between 37 °C (14 %) and 39 °C (6.7 %) reflects residual uncertainty in peak-hour mixing and urban heat-island effects, while probabilities below 36 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
38°C 79%
37°C 12%
39°C 11.5%
40°C <1%
$68,219 Vol.
$68,219 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
12%
38°C
79%
39°C
12%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 79%
37°C 12%
39°C 11.5%
40°C <1%
$68,219 Vol.
$68,219 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
$1,646 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,041 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,084 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,870 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$19,276 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$12,447 Vol.
12%
38°C
$10,756 Vol.
79%
39°C
$8,755 Vol.
12%
40°C
$4,336 Vol.
1%
41°C
$1,487 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$522 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models place Madrid’s August 17 maximum near 36–37 °C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable subtropical ridge, positioning 38 °C as the most probable outcome at 79.5 % market-implied odds. Historical August climatology shows typical highs of 32–34 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended 2–3 °C above average without signaling an extreme heat event. The narrow spread between 37 °C (14 %) and 39 °C (6.7 %) reflects residual uncertainty in peak-hour mixing and urban heat-island effects, while probabilities below 36 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$68,219End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models place Madrid’s August 17 maximum near 36–37 °C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable subtropical ridge, positioning 38 °C as the most probable outcome at 79.5 % market-implied odds. Historical August climatology shows typical highs of 32–34 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended 2–3 °C above average without signaling an extreme heat event. The narrow spread between 37 °C (14 %) and 39 °C (6.7 %) reflects residual uncertainty in peak-hour mixing and urban heat-island effects, while probabilities below 36 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,219End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models place Madrid’s August 17 maximum near 36–37 °C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable subtropical ridge, positioning 38 °C as the most probable outcome at 79.5 % market-implied odds. Historical August climatology shows typical highs of 32–34 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended 2–3 °C above average without signaling an extreme heat event. The narrow spread between 37 °C (14 %) and 39 °C (6.7 %) reflects residual uncertainty in peak-hour mixing and urban heat-island effects, while probabilities below 36 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of stronger advection or cloud cover in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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