Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a building ridge of high pressure over the Po Valley, favoring warm southerly advection and strong daytime insolation that supports surface highs near 28–29 °C in Milan on May 22. This aligns with the market’s close spread between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts. Late-May climatology places typical highs at 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects above-average warmth driven by subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Model runs remain sensitive to small differences in boundary-layer mixing or overnight low-level moisture, which could pull the peak down to 27 °C or allow a brief excursion toward 30 °C. Fresh guidance expected overnight will clarify whether the ridge strengthens or weakens ahead of the afternoon maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 22?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 22?
29°C 34%
28°C 31%
27°C 15%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
15%
28°C
31%
29°C
34%
30°C
14%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 34%
28°C 31%
27°C 15%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
23°C or below
$2,094 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,646 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$586 Vol.
3%
27°C
$251 Vol.
15%
28°C
$473 Vol.
31%
29°C
$429 Vol.
34%
30°C
$407 Vol.
14%
31°C
$247 Vol.
5%
32°C
$191 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a building ridge of high pressure over the Po Valley, favoring warm southerly advection and strong daytime insolation that supports surface highs near 28–29 °C in Milan on May 22. This aligns with the market’s close spread between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts. Late-May climatology places typical highs at 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects above-average warmth driven by subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Model runs remain sensitive to small differences in boundary-layer mixing or overnight low-level moisture, which could pull the peak down to 27 °C or allow a brief excursion toward 30 °C. Fresh guidance expected overnight will clarify whether the ridge strengthens or weakens ahead of the afternoon maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Volume
$8,247End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a building ridge of high pressure over the Po Valley, favoring warm southerly advection and strong daytime insolation that supports surface highs near 28–29 °C in Milan on May 22. This aligns with the market’s close spread between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts. Late-May climatology places typical highs at 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects above-average warmth driven by subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Model runs remain sensitive to small differences in boundary-layer mixing or overnight low-level moisture, which could pull the peak down to 27 °C or allow a brief excursion toward 30 °C. Fresh guidance expected overnight will clarify whether the ridge strengthens or weakens ahead of the afternoon maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,247End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a building ridge of high pressure over the Po Valley, favoring warm southerly advection and strong daytime insolation that supports surface highs near 28–29 °C in Milan on May 22. This aligns with the market’s close spread between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts. Late-May climatology places typical highs at 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects above-average warmth driven by subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Model runs remain sensitive to small differences in boundary-layer mixing or overnight low-level moisture, which could pull the peak down to 27 °C or allow a brief excursion toward 30 °C. Fresh guidance expected overnight will clarify whether the ridge strengthens or weakens ahead of the afternoon maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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