Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Tokyo on May 22, with expected highs centered in the 16–18°C range due to northerly flow and increased cloud cover suppressing daytime warming. This atmospheric pattern aligns with current model consensus, which shows limited solar heating and possible scattered showers that further moderate peak temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these near-term observations heavily against historical May averages of 22–23°C, resulting in strong market-implied odds for 16–18°C outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the resolution window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?
17°C 38%
16°C 27%
18°C 24%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
27%
17°C
38%
18°C
24%
19°C
7%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
1%
17°C 38%
16°C 27%
18°C 24%
19°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
11°C or below
$655 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$852 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$838 Vol.
2%
15°C
$884 Vol.
6%
16°C
$424 Vol.
27%
17°C
$513 Vol.
38%
18°C
$365 Vol.
24%
19°C
$188 Vol.
7%
20°C
$286 Vol.
3%
21°C or higher
$380 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Tokyo on May 22, with expected highs centered in the 16–18°C range due to northerly flow and increased cloud cover suppressing daytime warming. This atmospheric pattern aligns with current model consensus, which shows limited solar heating and possible scattered showers that further moderate peak temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these near-term observations heavily against historical May averages of 22–23°C, resulting in strong market-implied odds for 16–18°C outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the resolution window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$5,917End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Tokyo on May 22, with expected highs centered in the 16–18°C range due to northerly flow and increased cloud cover suppressing daytime warming. This atmospheric pattern aligns with current model consensus, which shows limited solar heating and possible scattered showers that further moderate peak temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these near-term observations heavily against historical May averages of 22–23°C, resulting in strong market-implied odds for 16–18°C outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the resolution window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,917End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Tokyo on May 22, with expected highs centered in the 16–18°C range due to northerly flow and increased cloud cover suppressing daytime warming. This atmospheric pattern aligns with current model consensus, which shows limited solar heating and possible scattered showers that further moderate peak temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these near-term observations heavily against historical May averages of 22–23°C, resulting in strong market-implied odds for 16–18°C outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the resolution window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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