Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 16?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$142,858 Vol.
$142,858 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$142,858 Vol.
$142,858 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
28°C or below
$17,166 Vol.
No
29°C
$13,497 Vol.
No
30°C
$18,410 Vol.
No
31°C
$23,788 Vol.
No
32°C
$23,688 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$19,051 Vol.
No
34°C
$14,592 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,577 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,186 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,665 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$238 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$142,858End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$142,858End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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