Recent atmospheric conditions over southeastern Brazil, including persistent cloud cover and southeasterly flow, have anchored trader sentiment around a modest maximum of 20–22 °C for São Paulo on August 25. These factors suppress daytime heating compared with clearer subtropical high-pressure regimes that produced warmer readings earlier in the month. Key variables include the depth and timing of stratiform clouds, which limit solar insolation; boundary-layer moisture and wind speed, which influence mixing and evaporative cooling; and the precise siting of the official thermometer, where urban heat-island effects can add 1–2 °C. Model consensus from INMET and global ensembles shows limited spread but notes sensitivity to any late-day clearing that could push the peak toward 23 °C or keep it near 19 °C under thicker overcast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
21°C 33%
22°C 22%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
10%
20°C
18%
21°C
33%
22°C
22%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 33%
22°C 22%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$188 Vol.
1%
19°C
$544 Vol.
10%
20°C
$1,260 Vol.
18%
21°C
$1,222 Vol.
33%
22°C
$1,308 Vol.
22%
23°C
$1,327 Vol.
12%
24°C
$836 Vol.
6%
25°C
$524 Vol.
1%
26°C
$361 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$288 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over southeastern Brazil, including persistent cloud cover and southeasterly flow, have anchored trader sentiment around a modest maximum of 20–22 °C for São Paulo on August 25. These factors suppress daytime heating compared with clearer subtropical high-pressure regimes that produced warmer readings earlier in the month. Key variables include the depth and timing of stratiform clouds, which limit solar insolation; boundary-layer moisture and wind speed, which influence mixing and evaporative cooling; and the precise siting of the official thermometer, where urban heat-island effects can add 1–2 °C. Model consensus from INMET and global ensembles shows limited spread but notes sensitivity to any late-day clearing that could push the peak toward 23 °C or keep it near 19 °C under thicker overcast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$8,075End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over southeastern Brazil, including persistent cloud cover and southeasterly flow, have anchored trader sentiment around a modest maximum of 20–22 °C for São Paulo on August 25. These factors suppress daytime heating compared with clearer subtropical high-pressure regimes that produced warmer readings earlier in the month. Key variables include the depth and timing of stratiform clouds, which limit solar insolation; boundary-layer moisture and wind speed, which influence mixing and evaporative cooling; and the precise siting of the official thermometer, where urban heat-island effects can add 1–2 °C. Model consensus from INMET and global ensembles shows limited spread but notes sensitivity to any late-day clearing that could push the peak toward 23 °C or keep it near 19 °C under thicker overcast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,075End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent atmospheric conditions over southeastern Brazil, including persistent cloud cover and southeasterly flow, have anchored trader sentiment around a modest maximum of 20–22 °C for São Paulo on August 25. These factors suppress daytime heating compared with clearer subtropical high-pressure regimes that produced warmer readings earlier in the month. Key variables include the depth and timing of stratiform clouds, which limit solar insolation; boundary-layer moisture and wind speed, which influence mixing and evaporative cooling; and the precise siting of the official thermometer, where urban heat-island effects can add 1–2 °C. Model consensus from INMET and global ensembles shows limited spread but notes sensitivity to any late-day clearing that could push the peak toward 23 °C or keep it near 19 °C under thicker overcast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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