**Forecast models for São Paulo on August 25 point to overnight lows clustered near 9–14°C, producing closely matched market probabilities around 13–16°C as the most likely outcomes.** Winter conditions in the subtropics feature clear or partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling after sunset, while light winds and low humidity allow temperatures to drop further than on cloudy or breezy nights. Recent model runs show modest differences in the strength and timing of any weak frontal boundary or high-pressure ridge, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C depending on whether cold air advection or subsidence dominates. Historical August minima in São Paulo average near 12–14°C, providing context for the current distribution. Traders weigh the latest operational runs from global models against local observation networks, with updates on cloud trends or wind shifts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
13°C 32%
14°C 31%
15°C 28%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
12%
10°C
5%
11°C
8%
12°C
8%
13°C
32%
14°C
31%
15°C
28%
16°C
23%
17°C
8%
18°C
14%
19°C or higher
2%
13°C 32%
14°C 31%
15°C 28%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$150 Vol.
12%
10°C
$95 Vol.
5%
11°C
$9 Vol.
8%
12°C
$2 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
32%
14°C
$0 Vol.
31%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$20 Vol.
23%
17°C
$80 Vol.
8%
18°C
$150 Vol.
14%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for São Paulo on August 25 point to overnight lows clustered near 9–14°C, producing closely matched market probabilities around 13–16°C as the most likely outcomes.**
Winter conditions in the subtropics feature clear or partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling after sunset, while light winds and low humidity allow temperatures to drop further than on cloudy or breezy nights. Recent model runs show modest differences in the strength and timing of any weak frontal boundary or high-pressure ridge, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C depending on whether cold air advection or subsidence dominates. Historical August minima in São Paulo average near 12–14°C, providing context for the current distribution. Traders weigh the latest operational runs from global models against local observation networks, with updates on cloud trends or wind shifts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$516End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for São Paulo on August 25 point to overnight lows clustered near 9–14°C, producing closely matched market probabilities around 13–16°C as the most likely outcomes.**
Winter conditions in the subtropics feature clear or partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling after sunset, while light winds and low humidity allow temperatures to drop further than on cloudy or breezy nights. Recent model runs show modest differences in the strength and timing of any weak frontal boundary or high-pressure ridge, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C depending on whether cold air advection or subsidence dominates. Historical August minima in São Paulo average near 12–14°C, providing context for the current distribution. Traders weigh the latest operational runs from global models against local observation networks, with updates on cloud trends or wind shifts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$516End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for São Paulo on August 25 point to overnight lows clustered near 9–14°C, producing closely matched market probabilities around 13–16°C as the most likely outcomes.** Winter conditions in the subtropics feature clear or partly cloudy skies that enhance radiative cooling after sunset, while light winds and low humidity allow temperatures to drop further than on cloudy or breezy nights. Recent model runs show modest differences in the strength and timing of any weak frontal boundary or high-pressure ridge, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C depending on whether cold air advection or subsidence dominates. Historical August minima in São Paulo average near 12–14°C, providing context for the current distribution. Traders weigh the latest operational runs from global models against local observation networks, with updates on cloud trends or wind shifts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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