Stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow over central Poland are anchoring Warsaw’s maximum temperature near 22°C on August 12, according to the latest consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This setup favors gradual daytime heating under partly cloudy skies without significant warm-air advection, consistent with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 23–25°C. Official observations through midday already track closely to this level, with minimal risk of convective development or stronger southerly winds that could push readings higher. The market’s near-certain pricing on 22°C reflects this tight model agreement and the day’s advanced stage. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or station-specific microclimate effects would realistically alter the outcome before official daily maximum reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$32,001 Vol.
$32,001 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$32,001 Vol.
$32,001 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$308 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,287 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,741 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,004 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,032 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$6,140 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,254 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,991 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,943 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,006 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$296 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow over central Poland are anchoring Warsaw’s maximum temperature near 22°C on August 12, according to the latest consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This setup favors gradual daytime heating under partly cloudy skies without significant warm-air advection, consistent with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 23–25°C. Official observations through midday already track closely to this level, with minimal risk of convective development or stronger southerly winds that could push readings higher. The market’s near-certain pricing on 22°C reflects this tight model agreement and the day’s advanced stage. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or station-specific microclimate effects would realistically alter the outcome before official daily maximum reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$32,001End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow over central Poland are anchoring Warsaw’s maximum temperature near 22°C on August 12, according to the latest consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This setup favors gradual daytime heating under partly cloudy skies without significant warm-air advection, consistent with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 23–25°C. Official observations through midday already track closely to this level, with minimal risk of convective development or stronger southerly winds that could push readings higher. The market’s near-certain pricing on 22°C reflects this tight model agreement and the day’s advanced stage. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or station-specific microclimate effects would realistically alter the outcome before official daily maximum reporting.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,001End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Stable high-pressure conditions and light northerly flow over central Poland are anchoring Warsaw’s maximum temperature near 22°C on August 12, according to the latest consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This setup favors gradual daytime heating under partly cloudy skies without significant warm-air advection, consistent with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 23–25°C. Official observations through midday already track closely to this level, with minimal risk of convective development or stronger southerly winds that could push readings higher. The market’s near-certain pricing on 22°C reflects this tight model agreement and the day’s advanced stage. Only an unexpected late surge in insolation or station-specific microclimate effects would realistically alter the outcome before official daily maximum reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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