Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 13?
26°C 35%
24°C 29%
25°C 24%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
11%
24°C
17%
25°C
24%
26°C
30%
27°C
6%
28°C
11%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 35%
24°C 29%
25°C 24%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C
$6 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$5 Vol.
17%
25°C
$2 Vol.
24%
26°C
$6 Vol.
30%
27°C
$10 Vol.
6%
28°C
$0 Vol.
11%
29°C
$5 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster around daily maximum temperatures of 25–26 °C in Warsaw for July 13, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 23 % and 21.5 %. At a two-day lead time, typical 1–2 °C spread arises from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise track of weak Atlantic fronts modulating shortwave radiation and warm-air advection. Historical July averages near 24–25 °C provide climatological context, while the absence of blocking highs or strong subsidence keeps extreme outcomes below 10 % probability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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