Strong southerly airflow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is driving MetService and numerical weather model consensus toward an 11°C daytime maximum in Wellington on August 19. Persistent southerlies suppress warming by limiting insolation and maintaining a stable cold-air mass typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. This narrow forecast range underpins the market’s near-certain trader consensus on 11°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected cloud breaks allowing greater solar heating or a sharper northerly wind shift, though current synoptic patterns and model agreement make significant upward deviation improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$63,807 Vol.
$63,807 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
Yes
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$63,807 Vol.
$63,807 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
5°C or below
$201 Vol.
No
6°C
$186 Vol.
No
7°C
$296 Vol.
No
8°C
$167 Vol.
No
9°C
$3,744 Vol.
No
10°C
$27,351 Vol.
No
11°C
$9,486 Vol.
Yes
12°C
$12,915 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,369 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,306 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$1,787 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly airflow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is driving MetService and numerical weather model consensus toward an 11°C daytime maximum in Wellington on August 19. Persistent southerlies suppress warming by limiting insolation and maintaining a stable cold-air mass typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. This narrow forecast range underpins the market’s near-certain trader consensus on 11°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected cloud breaks allowing greater solar heating or a sharper northerly wind shift, though current synoptic patterns and model agreement make significant upward deviation improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$63,807End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly airflow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is driving MetService and numerical weather model consensus toward an 11°C daytime maximum in Wellington on August 19. Persistent southerlies suppress warming by limiting insolation and maintaining a stable cold-air mass typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. This narrow forecast range underpins the market’s near-certain trader consensus on 11°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected cloud breaks allowing greater solar heating or a sharper northerly wind shift, though current synoptic patterns and model agreement make significant upward deviation improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$63,807End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong southerly airflow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, is driving MetService and numerical weather model consensus toward an 11°C daytime maximum in Wellington on August 19. Persistent southerlies suppress warming by limiting insolation and maintaining a stable cold-air mass typical of mid-winter conditions in the region. This narrow forecast range underpins the market’s near-certain trader consensus on 11°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected cloud breaks allowing greater solar heating or a sharper northerly wind shift, though current synoptic patterns and model agreement make significant upward deviation improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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