Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 32–35 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms as most likely at 30%, with 24–27 close behind at 22%, reflecting uncertainty around the pace of further announcements. As of early May per the House Press Gallery's casualty list, 26 Democrats have confirmed retirement or bids for other offices like Senate or governor, including figures such as Pelosi, Hoyer, and Nadler, amid a record overall retirement wave tied for highest this century. The tight race persists due to a recent slowdown in declarations over the past 30 days, stabilizing counts near the lower bins, but historical midterm patterns show late exits from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts. State primary filing deadlines in late May and June could spur additional retirements, potentially separating higher ranges if polling worsens or party pressures mount.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32–35 30.1%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 Vol.
$31,637 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
15%
24–27
22%
28–31
18%
32–35
30%
36–39
3%
40+
16%
32–35 30.1%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 Vol.
$31,637 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
2%
20–23
$5,244 Vol.
15%
24–27
$4,156 Vol.
22%
28–31
$1,164 Vol.
18%
32–35
$3,574 Vol.
30%
36–39
$508 Vol.
3%
40+
$0 Vol.
16%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 32–35 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms as most likely at 30%, with 24–27 close behind at 22%, reflecting uncertainty around the pace of further announcements. As of early May per the House Press Gallery's casualty list, 26 Democrats have confirmed retirement or bids for other offices like Senate or governor, including figures such as Pelosi, Hoyer, and Nadler, amid a record overall retirement wave tied for highest this century. The tight race persists due to a recent slowdown in declarations over the past 30 days, stabilizing counts near the lower bins, but historical midterm patterns show late exits from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts. State primary filing deadlines in late May and June could spur additional retirements, potentially separating higher ranges if polling worsens or party pressures mount.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 32–35 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms as most likely at 30%, with 24–27 close behind at 22%, reflecting uncertainty around the pace of further announcements. As of early May per the House Press Gallery's casualty list, 26 Democrats have confirmed retirement or bids for other offices like Senate or governor, including figures such as Pelosi, Hoyer, and Nadler, amid a record overall retirement wave tied for highest this century. The tight race persists due to a recent slowdown in declarations over the past 30 days, stabilizing counts near the lower bins, but historical midterm patterns show late exits from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts. State primary filing deadlines in late May and June could spur additional retirements, potentially separating higher ranges if polling worsens or party pressures mount.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,637End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 32–35 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms as most likely at 30%, with 24–27 close behind at 22%, reflecting uncertainty around the pace of further announcements. As of early May per the House Press Gallery's casualty list, 26 Democrats have confirmed retirement or bids for other offices like Senate or governor, including figures such as Pelosi, Hoyer, and Nadler, amid a record overall retirement wave tied for highest this century. The tight race persists due to a recent slowdown in declarations over the past 30 days, stabilizing counts near the lower bins, but historical midterm patterns show late exits from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts. State primary filing deadlines in late May and June could spur additional retirements, potentially separating higher ranges if polling worsens or party pressures mount.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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