As of mid-August 2026, the count of Democratic House members not seeking re-election stands near 23–25 according to trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the market in a tight contest between the 20–23 and 24–27 brackets. Primary drivers include a wave of retirement announcements from late 2025 through spring 2026 by long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Nydia Velázquez, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson, alongside several others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. This pace reflects standard midterm dynamics and generational turnover rather than acute partisan pressures, with most decisions finalized well before primary filing deadlines. Additional late announcements or shifts in a handful of open races could separate the leading outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20–23 44.5%
24–27 38%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 6.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
7%
20–23
45%
24–27
37%
28–31
11%
32–35
7%
36–39
<1%
40+
1%
20–23 44.5%
24–27 38%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 6.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,793 Vol.
7%
20–23
$9,759 Vol.
45%
24–27
$7,530 Vol.
37%
28–31
$1,924 Vol.
11%
32–35
$4,526 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,348 Vol.
<1%
40+
$1,671 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, the count of Democratic House members not seeking re-election stands near 23–25 according to trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the market in a tight contest between the 20–23 and 24–27 brackets. Primary drivers include a wave of retirement announcements from late 2025 through spring 2026 by long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Nydia Velázquez, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson, alongside several others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. This pace reflects standard midterm dynamics and generational turnover rather than acute partisan pressures, with most decisions finalized well before primary filing deadlines. Additional late announcements or shifts in a handful of open races could separate the leading outcomes before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$44,551End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, the count of Democratic House members not seeking re-election stands near 23–25 according to trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the market in a tight contest between the 20–23 and 24–27 brackets. Primary drivers include a wave of retirement announcements from late 2025 through spring 2026 by long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Nydia Velázquez, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson, alongside several others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. This pace reflects standard midterm dynamics and generational turnover rather than acute partisan pressures, with most decisions finalized well before primary filing deadlines. Additional late announcements or shifts in a handful of open races could separate the leading outcomes before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,551End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, the count of Democratic House members not seeking re-election stands near 23–25 according to trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the market in a tight contest between the 20–23 and 24–27 brackets. Primary drivers include a wave of retirement announcements from late 2025 through spring 2026 by long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Nydia Velázquez, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson, alongside several others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids. This pace reflects standard midterm dynamics and generational turnover rather than acute partisan pressures, with most decisions finalized well before primary filing deadlines. Additional late announcements or shifts in a handful of open races could separate the leading outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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