Elevated U.S. inflation remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment toward zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the July 2026 CPI print showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and core at 2.5%, both still well above the 2% target. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and a June 2026 FOMC dot plot median projecting a 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate by year-end have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward policy holds or modest hikes from the current 3.50–3.75% range. Recent weak July employment data introduced some uncertainty, yet traders continue to price limited easing as incoming inflation and labor market readings support a restrictive stance through the September FOMC meeting and beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 (0 bps) 85.1%
1 (25 bps) 11%
2 (50 bps) 4.0%
3 (75 bps) <1%
$48,676,296 Vol.
$48,676,296 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
85%
1 (25 bps)
11%
2 (50 bps)
4%
3 (75 bps)
1%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5 (125 bps)
<1%
6 (150 bps)
<1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 85.1%
1 (25 bps) 11%
2 (50 bps) 4.0%
3 (75 bps) <1%
$48,676,296 Vol.
$48,676,296 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$7,285,783 Vol.
85%
1 (25 bps)
$2,541,018 Vol.
11%
2 (50 bps)
$2,692,323 Vol.
4%
3 (75 bps)
$2,556,573 Vol.
1%
4 (100 bps)
$2,459,039 Vol.
<1%
5 (125 bps)
$2,710,239 Vol.
<1%
6 (150 bps)
$3,931,598 Vol.
<1%
7 (175 bps)
$3,220,780 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$3,224,703 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$4,177,302 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$4,887,627 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$5,216,451 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$3,772,861 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated U.S. inflation remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment toward zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the July 2026 CPI print showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and core at 2.5%, both still well above the 2% target. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and a June 2026 FOMC dot plot median projecting a 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate by year-end have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward policy holds or modest hikes from the current 3.50–3.75% range. Recent weak July employment data introduced some uncertainty, yet traders continue to price limited easing as incoming inflation and labor market readings support a restrictive stance through the September FOMC meeting and beyond.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$48,676,296End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated U.S. inflation remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment toward zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the July 2026 CPI print showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and core at 2.5%, both still well above the 2% target. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and a June 2026 FOMC dot plot median projecting a 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate by year-end have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward policy holds or modest hikes from the current 3.50–3.75% range. Recent weak July employment data introduced some uncertainty, yet traders continue to price limited easing as incoming inflation and labor market readings support a restrictive stance through the September FOMC meeting and beyond.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$48,676,296End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated U.S. inflation remains the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment toward zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the July 2026 CPI print showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and core at 2.5%, both still well above the 2% target. Persistent energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions and a June 2026 FOMC dot plot median projecting a 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate by year-end have shifted market-implied odds sharply toward policy holds or modest hikes from the current 3.50–3.75% range. Recent weak July employment data introduced some uncertainty, yet traders continue to price limited easing as incoming inflation and labor market readings support a restrictive stance through the September FOMC meeting and beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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