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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8,461,676 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$8,461,676 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$265,372 Vol.

1%

December 31

$234,510 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established two small “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon for initial Israeli force reductions, with control transferring to the Lebanese Armed Forces only after verified Hezbollah disarmament in those areas. Broader redeployment from the expanded security zone remains explicitly conditions-based rather than time-bound, requiring confirmed dismantlement of Hezbollah infrastructure and elimination of threats to northern Israel before any further withdrawals. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated the buffer zone will stay in place until those benchmarks are met, while Hezbollah rejected the deal outright and demanded unconditional full withdrawal. Implementation of even the pilot zones has proceeded slowly amid ongoing Israeli strikes and coordination through a U.S.-facilitated military group. These structural barriers and lack of progress on disarmament have kept trader-implied probabilities for a complete Israeli ground-force exit by late 2026 in the low single digits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,461,676
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established two small “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon for initial Israeli force reductions, with control transferring to the Lebanese Armed Forces only after verified Hezbollah disarmament in those areas. Broader redeployment from the expanded security zone remains explicitly conditions-based rather than time-bound, requiring confirmed dismantlement of Hezbollah infrastructure and elimination of threats to northern Israel before any further withdrawals. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated the buffer zone will stay in place until those benchmarks are met, while Hezbollah rejected the deal outright and demanded unconditional full withdrawal. Implementation of even the pilot zones has proceeded slowly amid ongoing Israeli strikes and coordination through a U.S.-facilitated military group. These structural barriers and lack of progress on disarmament have kept trader-implied probabilities for a complete Israeli ground-force exit by late 2026 in the low single digits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,461,676
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 5%, followed by "September 30" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" has generated $8.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is "December 31" at just 5%, with "September 30" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.