The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established pilot zones for limited Israeli troop redeployments in southern Lebanon, with further withdrawals conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across the territory, and security verification rather than fixed timelines. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that forces will remain in the expanded buffer zone as long as Hezbollah retains weapons and poses a threat, while the group has rejected the terms as unacceptable. Subsequent diplomatic coordination and occasional strikes have tested implementation, leaving trader assessments of full withdrawal by any near-term date dependent on progress in these sequenced conditions amid continued regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$8,461,676 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
December 31
5%
$8,461,676 Vol.
September 30
$265,372 Vol.
1%
December 31
$234,510 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established pilot zones for limited Israeli troop redeployments in southern Lebanon, with further withdrawals conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across the territory, and security verification rather than fixed timelines. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that forces will remain in the expanded buffer zone as long as Hezbollah retains weapons and poses a threat, while the group has rejected the terms as unacceptable. Subsequent diplomatic coordination and occasional strikes have tested implementation, leaving trader assessments of full withdrawal by any near-term date dependent on progress in these sequenced conditions amid continued regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET
Volume
$8,461,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established pilot zones for limited Israeli troop redeployments in southern Lebanon, with further withdrawals conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across the territory, and security verification rather than fixed timelines. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that forces will remain in the expanded buffer zone as long as Hezbollah retains weapons and poses a threat, while the group has rejected the terms as unacceptable. Subsequent diplomatic coordination and occasional strikes have tested implementation, leaving trader assessments of full withdrawal by any near-term date dependent on progress in these sequenced conditions amid continued regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,461,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established pilot zones for limited Israeli troop redeployments in southern Lebanon, with further withdrawals conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment across the territory, and security verification rather than fixed timelines. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that forces will remain in the expanded buffer zone as long as Hezbollah retains weapons and poses a threat, while the group has rejected the terms as unacceptable. Subsequent diplomatic coordination and occasional strikes have tested implementation, leaving trader assessments of full withdrawal by any near-term date dependent on progress in these sequenced conditions amid continued regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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