Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election show Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-religious bloc and the opposing centrist-left alliance each projected below the 61-seat majority threshold in the 120-seat chamber, with Arab parties holding potential swing influence. Volatility stems from multiple small lists hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold and ongoing Central Elections Committee reviews of disqualification petitions. Traders assign a 63.5% probability that the outcome avoids a hung parliament, reflecting expectations that post-election coalition talks will produce a government through unity arrangements, minority support, or bloc realignments rather than defaulting to fresh elections. Surplus-vote pacts and turnout patterns among key demographics remain decisive factors in the final seat distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
38% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
38% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election show Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-religious bloc and the opposing centrist-left alliance each projected below the 61-seat majority threshold in the 120-seat chamber, with Arab parties holding potential swing influence. Volatility stems from multiple small lists hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold and ongoing Central Elections Committee reviews of disqualification petitions. Traders assign a 63.5% probability that the outcome avoids a hung parliament, reflecting expectations that post-election coalition talks will produce a government through unity arrangements, minority support, or bloc realignments rather than defaulting to fresh elections. Surplus-vote pacts and turnout patterns among key demographics remain decisive factors in the final seat distribution.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Volume
$6,482End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election show Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-religious bloc and the opposing centrist-left alliance each projected below the 61-seat majority threshold in the 120-seat chamber, with Arab parties holding potential swing influence. Volatility stems from multiple small lists hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold and ongoing Central Elections Committee reviews of disqualification petitions. Traders assign a 63.5% probability that the outcome avoids a hung parliament, reflecting expectations that post-election coalition talks will produce a government through unity arrangements, minority support, or bloc realignments rather than defaulting to fresh elections. Surplus-vote pacts and turnout patterns among key demographics remain decisive factors in the final seat distribution.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,482End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election show Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-religious bloc and the opposing centrist-left alliance each projected below the 61-seat majority threshold in the 120-seat chamber, with Arab parties holding potential swing influence. Volatility stems from multiple small lists hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold and ongoing Central Elections Committee reviews of disqualification petitions. Traders assign a 63.5% probability that the outcome avoids a hung parliament, reflecting expectations that post-election coalition talks will produce a government through unity arrangements, minority support, or bloc realignments rather than defaulting to fresh elections. Surplus-vote pacts and turnout patterns among key demographics remain decisive factors in the final seat distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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