**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21, 2026, reflecting model consensus for overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure and light northwest winds.** Forecasts from GFS and other sources indicate minimums near 12–13°C (55–56°F) amid partly cloudy skies and dew points around 11–12°C, consistent with September climatology where typical lows hover near 12°C. High pressure and modest winds limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in low-level cloudiness or a slight wind shift enhancing mixing, potentially keeping the minimum at 12°C or above, or clearer skies and calmer conditions pushing it to 10°C. Official KNMI or equivalent station measurements will determine resolution, with model runs continuing to refine the final value through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21?
11°C 95%
8°C 19%
9°C 19%
7°C or below 9%
$1,848 Vol.
$1,848 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
9%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
-
11°C
95%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 95%
8°C 19%
9°C 19%
7°C or below 9%
$1,848 Vol.
$1,848 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
9%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$43 Vol.
-
11°C
$125 Vol.
95%
12°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$746 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$635 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21, 2026, reflecting model consensus for overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure and light northwest winds.** Forecasts from GFS and other sources indicate minimums near 12–13°C (55–56°F) amid partly cloudy skies and dew points around 11–12°C, consistent with September climatology where typical lows hover near 12°C. High pressure and modest winds limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in low-level cloudiness or a slight wind shift enhancing mixing, potentially keeping the minimum at 12°C or above, or clearer skies and calmer conditions pushing it to 10°C. Official KNMI or equivalent station measurements will determine resolution, with model runs continuing to refine the final value through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,848End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21, 2026, reflecting model consensus for overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure and light northwest winds.** Forecasts from GFS and other sources indicate minimums near 12–13°C (55–56°F) amid partly cloudy skies and dew points around 11–12°C, consistent with September climatology where typical lows hover near 12°C. High pressure and modest winds limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in low-level cloudiness or a slight wind shift enhancing mixing, potentially keeping the minimum at 12°C or above, or clearer skies and calmer conditions pushing it to 10°C. Official KNMI or equivalent station measurements will determine resolution, with model runs continuing to refine the final value through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,848End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 11°C as the lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21, 2026, reflecting model consensus for overnight radiative cooling under stable high pressure and light northwest winds.** Forecasts from GFS and other sources indicate minimums near 12–13°C (55–56°F) amid partly cloudy skies and dew points around 11–12°C, consistent with September climatology where typical lows hover near 12°C. High pressure and modest winds limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected increases in low-level cloudiness or a slight wind shift enhancing mixing, potentially keeping the minimum at 12°C or above, or clearer skies and calmer conditions pushing it to 10°C. Official KNMI or equivalent station measurements will determine resolution, with model runs continuing to refine the final value through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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