Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the GFS, ECMWF, and regional forecasts points to clear skies and high pressure over Ankara through September 8, promoting strong radiative cooling overnight under light northeasterly winds. This setup follows a cooling trend from early September highs near 30–32°C, with projected lows of 11–12°C—near or slightly below seasonal norms for the Ankara region. The dominant 71.5% market-implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader emphasis on potential model underestimation of cooling or slight wind shifts enhancing nocturnal temperature drops, while the 24% clustering around 11°C aligns with current ensemble guidance. Updated runs from official agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 8?
9°C or below 76%
11°C 45%
12°C 45%
14°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
9°C or below
76%
10°C
26%
11°C
45%
12°C
45%
13°C
1%
14°C
45%
15°C
45%
16°C
45%
17°C
8%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
24%
9°C or below 76%
11°C 45%
12°C 45%
14°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
76%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
45%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$6 Vol.
4%
19°C or higher
$6 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the GFS, ECMWF, and regional forecasts points to clear skies and high pressure over Ankara through September 8, promoting strong radiative cooling overnight under light northeasterly winds. This setup follows a cooling trend from early September highs near 30–32°C, with projected lows of 11–12°C—near or slightly below seasonal norms for the Ankara region. The dominant 71.5% market-implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader emphasis on potential model underestimation of cooling or slight wind shifts enhancing nocturnal temperature drops, while the 24% clustering around 11°C aligns with current ensemble guidance. Updated runs from official agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the GFS, ECMWF, and regional forecasts points to clear skies and high pressure over Ankara through September 8, promoting strong radiative cooling overnight under light northeasterly winds. This setup follows a cooling trend from early September highs near 30–32°C, with projected lows of 11–12°C—near or slightly below seasonal norms for the Ankara region. The dominant 71.5% market-implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader emphasis on potential model underestimation of cooling or slight wind shifts enhancing nocturnal temperature drops, while the 24% clustering around 11°C aligns with current ensemble guidance. Updated runs from official agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the GFS, ECMWF, and regional forecasts points to clear skies and high pressure over Ankara through September 8, promoting strong radiative cooling overnight under light northeasterly winds. This setup follows a cooling trend from early September highs near 30–32°C, with projected lows of 11–12°C—near or slightly below seasonal norms for the Ankara region. The dominant 71.5% market-implied probability on 9°C or below reflects trader emphasis on potential model underestimation of cooling or slight wind shifts enhancing nocturnal temperature drops, while the 24% clustering around 11°C aligns with current ensemble guidance. Updated runs from official agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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