Recent forecast consensus from multiple models places Chengdu’s minimum temperature on September 14 near 18°C, driven by moderate cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling in the Sichuan Basin. Seasonal transition toward autumn brings slightly cooler air masses, while high humidity and potential rain on the 13th–14th suppress both daytime highs and nighttime lows compared with clear-sky scenarios. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes because short-range models still differ on exact cloud timing and precipitation amounts, with new runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours that could narrow the range. Traders weigh these variables against historical September minima around 17–20°C for the city.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
23°C or higher 71%
13°C or below 70%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
70%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
25%
18°C
28%
19°C
24%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
71%
23°C or higher 71%
13°C or below 70%
14°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
70%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models places Chengdu’s minimum temperature on September 14 near 18°C, driven by moderate cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling in the Sichuan Basin. Seasonal transition toward autumn brings slightly cooler air masses, while high humidity and potential rain on the 13th–14th suppress both daytime highs and nighttime lows compared with clear-sky scenarios. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes because short-range models still differ on exact cloud timing and precipitation amounts, with new runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours that could narrow the range. Traders weigh these variables against historical September minima around 17–20°C for the city.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models places Chengdu’s minimum temperature on September 14 near 18°C, driven by moderate cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling in the Sichuan Basin. Seasonal transition toward autumn brings slightly cooler air masses, while high humidity and potential rain on the 13th–14th suppress both daytime highs and nighttime lows compared with clear-sky scenarios. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes because short-range models still differ on exact cloud timing and precipitation amounts, with new runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours that could narrow the range. Traders weigh these variables against historical September minima around 17–20°C for the city.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple models places Chengdu’s minimum temperature on September 14 near 18°C, driven by moderate cloud cover, light northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling in the Sichuan Basin. Seasonal transition toward autumn brings slightly cooler air masses, while high humidity and potential rain on the 13th–14th suppress both daytime highs and nighttime lows compared with clear-sky scenarios. Market-implied odds remain split between sub-14°C and 23°C-plus outcomes because short-range models still differ on exact cloud timing and precipitation amounts, with new runs expected from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours that could narrow the range. Traders weigh these variables against historical September minima around 17–20°C for the city.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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