Recent model runs for Helsinki show considerable uncertainty in the nocturnal minimum on September 14, with forecasts ranging from roughly 6–9 °C amid partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. This spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds between a 2 °C or lower outcome and 12 °C or higher, as small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or advection from the Baltic can shift the low by several degrees. Historical climatology places the typical September 14 minimum near 9–10 °C, providing context for why traders weigh both cooler anomalies and milder scenarios. Updated guidance from global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 14?
2°C or below 75%
12°C or higher 75%
5°C 40%
3°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
75%
3°C
39%
4°C
39%
5°C
40%
6°C
25%
7°C
25%
8°C
24%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C or higher
75%
2°C or below 75%
12°C or higher 75%
5°C 40%
3°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
75%
3°C
$0 Vol.
39%
4°C
$0 Vol.
39%
5°C
$0 Vol.
40%
6°C
$0 Vol.
25%
7°C
$0 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
24%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs for Helsinki show considerable uncertainty in the nocturnal minimum on September 14, with forecasts ranging from roughly 6–9 °C amid partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. This spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds between a 2 °C or lower outcome and 12 °C or higher, as small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or advection from the Baltic can shift the low by several degrees. Historical climatology places the typical September 14 minimum near 9–10 °C, providing context for why traders weigh both cooler anomalies and milder scenarios. Updated guidance from global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs for Helsinki show considerable uncertainty in the nocturnal minimum on September 14, with forecasts ranging from roughly 6–9 °C amid partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. This spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds between a 2 °C or lower outcome and 12 °C or higher, as small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or advection from the Baltic can shift the low by several degrees. Historical climatology places the typical September 14 minimum near 9–10 °C, providing context for why traders weigh both cooler anomalies and milder scenarios. Updated guidance from global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs for Helsinki show considerable uncertainty in the nocturnal minimum on September 14, with forecasts ranging from roughly 6–9 °C amid partly clear skies that favor radiative cooling. This spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds between a 2 °C or lower outcome and 12 °C or higher, as small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, or advection from the Baltic can shift the low by several degrees. Historical climatology places the typical September 14 minimum near 9–10 °C, providing context for why traders weigh both cooler anomalies and milder scenarios. Updated guidance from global models over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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