Northeast monsoon flow has driven trader consensus toward a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, as sustained north to northeast winds of 4–5 promoted drier air and clearer skies conducive to overnight radiative cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory forecast a daily minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C range under partly cloudy conditions transitioning to mostly fine, aligning with seasonal September norms where average minima hover around 26°C but can dip lower with monsoon influence. Recent observations of daytime maxima near 31–32°C and falling humidity below 60% reinforced expectations of efficient nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud interference. Market-implied odds exceeding 99% on 25°C reflect this model consensus, though minor shifts in wind speed, unexpected cloud cover, or final HKO “Absolute Daily Min” verification could still alter the precise reading within a narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
25°C 99.8%
23°C 2.0%
24°C 1.0%
27°C 1.0%
$37,927 Vol.
$37,927 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
23°C 2.0%
24°C 1.0%
27°C 1.0%
$37,927 Vol.
$37,927 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,591 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5,713 Vol.
1%
25°C
$9,831 Vol.
100%
26°C
$5,533 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,795 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3,101 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow has driven trader consensus toward a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, as sustained north to northeast winds of 4–5 promoted drier air and clearer skies conducive to overnight radiative cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory forecast a daily minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C range under partly cloudy conditions transitioning to mostly fine, aligning with seasonal September norms where average minima hover around 26°C but can dip lower with monsoon influence. Recent observations of daytime maxima near 31–32°C and falling humidity below 60% reinforced expectations of efficient nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud interference. Market-implied odds exceeding 99% on 25°C reflect this model consensus, though minor shifts in wind speed, unexpected cloud cover, or final HKO “Absolute Daily Min” verification could still alter the precise reading within a narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$37,927End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow has driven trader consensus toward a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, as sustained north to northeast winds of 4–5 promoted drier air and clearer skies conducive to overnight radiative cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory forecast a daily minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C range under partly cloudy conditions transitioning to mostly fine, aligning with seasonal September norms where average minima hover around 26°C but can dip lower with monsoon influence. Recent observations of daytime maxima near 31–32°C and falling humidity below 60% reinforced expectations of efficient nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud interference. Market-implied odds exceeding 99% on 25°C reflect this model consensus, though minor shifts in wind speed, unexpected cloud cover, or final HKO “Absolute Daily Min” verification could still alter the precise reading within a narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,927End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast monsoon flow has driven trader consensus toward a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, as sustained north to northeast winds of 4–5 promoted drier air and clearer skies conducive to overnight radiative cooling. The Hong Kong Observatory forecast a daily minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C range under partly cloudy conditions transitioning to mostly fine, aligning with seasonal September norms where average minima hover around 26°C but can dip lower with monsoon influence. Recent observations of daytime maxima near 31–32°C and falling humidity below 60% reinforced expectations of efficient nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud interference. Market-implied odds exceeding 99% on 25°C reflect this model consensus, though minor shifts in wind speed, unexpected cloud cover, or final HKO “Absolute Daily Min” verification could still alter the precise reading within a narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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