**Clear skies and moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under southwest winds are the main drivers behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Jinan’s September 15 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts from multiple sources consistently project a daytime high near 32–33°C with a clear to mostly clear night, yielding an expected overnight low of 19–22°C. This places the daily minimum in a range where small variations in exact cooling rates can shift the outcome between the 15°C bucket (54.5% implied) and the clustered 12–14°C options (each ~45%). Key differentiating factors include the strength of nighttime longwave radiation loss under low humidity (~30–40%) and light winds (generally 2–4 m/s after sunset), which allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently once solar heating ends. Jinan’s urban setting and nearby topography can create localized microclimate differences of 1–3°C between official stations, while any slight increase in cloud cover or wind would limit cooling and favor the higher end of the distribution. Recent early-September cold-air intrusions have already shown the region’s sensitivity to such patterns, keeping traders attentive to the latest model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates for any last adjustments to the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on September 15?
12°C or below 90%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
90%
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
-
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 90%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
$30 Vol.
90%
13°C
$27 Vol.
-
14°C
$27 Vol.
-
15°C
$27 Vol.
-
16°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$271 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$748 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$21 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under southwest winds are the main drivers behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Jinan’s September 15 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts from multiple sources consistently project a daytime high near 32–33°C with a clear to mostly clear night, yielding an expected overnight low of 19–22°C. This places the daily minimum in a range where small variations in exact cooling rates can shift the outcome between the 15°C bucket (54.5% implied) and the clustered 12–14°C options (each ~45%).
Key differentiating factors include the strength of nighttime longwave radiation loss under low humidity (~30–40%) and light winds (generally 2–4 m/s after sunset), which allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently once solar heating ends. Jinan’s urban setting and nearby topography can create localized microclimate differences of 1–3°C between official stations, while any slight increase in cloud cover or wind would limit cooling and favor the higher end of the distribution. Recent early-September cold-air intrusions have already shown the region’s sensitivity to such patterns, keeping traders attentive to the latest model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates for any last adjustments to the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,961End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under southwest winds are the main drivers behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Jinan’s September 15 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts from multiple sources consistently project a daytime high near 32–33°C with a clear to mostly clear night, yielding an expected overnight low of 19–22°C. This places the daily minimum in a range where small variations in exact cooling rates can shift the outcome between the 15°C bucket (54.5% implied) and the clustered 12–14°C options (each ~45%).
Key differentiating factors include the strength of nighttime longwave radiation loss under low humidity (~30–40%) and light winds (generally 2–4 m/s after sunset), which allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently once solar heating ends. Jinan’s urban setting and nearby topography can create localized microclimate differences of 1–3°C between official stations, while any slight increase in cloud cover or wind would limit cooling and favor the higher end of the distribution. Recent early-September cold-air intrusions have already shown the region’s sensitivity to such patterns, keeping traders attentive to the latest model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates for any last adjustments to the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,961End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under southwest winds are the main drivers behind the closely matched Polymarket odds for Jinan’s September 15 minimum temperature.** Official forecasts from multiple sources consistently project a daytime high near 32–33°C with a clear to mostly clear night, yielding an expected overnight low of 19–22°C. This places the daily minimum in a range where small variations in exact cooling rates can shift the outcome between the 15°C bucket (54.5% implied) and the clustered 12–14°C options (each ~45%). Key differentiating factors include the strength of nighttime longwave radiation loss under low humidity (~30–40%) and light winds (generally 2–4 m/s after sunset), which allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently once solar heating ends. Jinan’s urban setting and nearby topography can create localized microclimate differences of 1–3°C between official stations, while any slight increase in cloud cover or wind would limit cooling and favor the higher end of the distribution. Recent early-September cold-air intrusions have already shown the region’s sensitivity to such patterns, keeping traders attentive to the latest model runs and China Meteorological Administration updates for any last adjustments to the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions