Latest ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF position 18°C as the most probable overnight minimum for London on September 13, driving the 59.5% market-implied probability. Persistent high pressure and light winds under clear skies are limiting radiative cooling while a mild southerly flow maintains temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms. Model runs show tight clustering around 17–19°C, with limited spread supporting the combined 99%+ probability on those three outcomes. Official observations from Heathrow and St James’s Park will resolve the market, with any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind the primary variable that could alter final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 13?
Lowest temperature in London on September 13?
18°C 60%
19°C 31%
17°C 9%
15°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
9%
18°C
60%
19°C
31%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 60%
19°C 31%
17°C 9%
15°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
12°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$14 Vol.
1%
16°C
$213 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,026 Vol.
9%
18°C
$1,519 Vol.
60%
19°C
$961 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$155 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF position 18°C as the most probable overnight minimum for London on September 13, driving the 59.5% market-implied probability. Persistent high pressure and light winds under clear skies are limiting radiative cooling while a mild southerly flow maintains temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms. Model runs show tight clustering around 17–19°C, with limited spread supporting the combined 99%+ probability on those three outcomes. Official observations from Heathrow and St James’s Park will resolve the market, with any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind the primary variable that could alter final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5,409End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF position 18°C as the most probable overnight minimum for London on September 13, driving the 59.5% market-implied probability. Persistent high pressure and light winds under clear skies are limiting radiative cooling while a mild southerly flow maintains temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms. Model runs show tight clustering around 17–19°C, with limited spread supporting the combined 99%+ probability on those three outcomes. Official observations from Heathrow and St James’s Park will resolve the market, with any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind the primary variable that could alter final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,409End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the UK Met Office and ECMWF position 18°C as the most probable overnight minimum for London on September 13, driving the 59.5% market-implied probability. Persistent high pressure and light winds under clear skies are limiting radiative cooling while a mild southerly flow maintains temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms. Model runs show tight clustering around 17–19°C, with limited spread supporting the combined 99%+ probability on those three outcomes. Official observations from Heathrow and St James’s Park will resolve the market, with any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind the primary variable that could alter final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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