Current short-term forecasts from models including GFS indicate clear skies and light northeast winds over Madrid through September 2, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling that sets the stage for a minimum near the historical September 2 average of 17.6 °C. Trader consensus splits evenly between 17 °C or below and exactly 18 °C because ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create a narrow uncertainty band around that threshold, while warmer recent days have not yet produced significant carryover heat. With resolution expected by early morning observations, any upward revision in dew points or cloud cover could shift the outcome toward 19 °C, whereas continued clear, calm conditions would lock in the lower range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 2?
18°C 100%
19°C 26%
21°C 14%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
-
18°C
100%
19°C
26%
20°C
7%
21°C
14%
22°C
13%
23°C
13%
24°C
13%
25°C
7%
26°C
7%
27°C or higher
5%
18°C 100%
19°C 26%
21°C 14%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
$51 Vol.
-
18°C
$6 Vol.
100%
19°C
$6 Vol.
26%
20°C
$32 Vol.
7%
21°C
$5 Vol.
14%
22°C
$5 Vol.
13%
23°C
$5 Vol.
13%
24°C
$5 Vol.
13%
25°C
$27 Vol.
7%
26°C
$22 Vol.
7%
27°C or higher
$22 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from models including GFS indicate clear skies and light northeast winds over Madrid through September 2, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling that sets the stage for a minimum near the historical September 2 average of 17.6 °C. Trader consensus splits evenly between 17 °C or below and exactly 18 °C because ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create a narrow uncertainty band around that threshold, while warmer recent days have not yet produced significant carryover heat. With resolution expected by early morning observations, any upward revision in dew points or cloud cover could shift the outcome toward 19 °C, whereas continued clear, calm conditions would lock in the lower range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$186End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from models including GFS indicate clear skies and light northeast winds over Madrid through September 2, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling that sets the stage for a minimum near the historical September 2 average of 17.6 °C. Trader consensus splits evenly between 17 °C or below and exactly 18 °C because ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create a narrow uncertainty band around that threshold, while warmer recent days have not yet produced significant carryover heat. With resolution expected by early morning observations, any upward revision in dew points or cloud cover could shift the outcome toward 19 °C, whereas continued clear, calm conditions would lock in the lower range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$186End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts from models including GFS indicate clear skies and light northeast winds over Madrid through September 2, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling that sets the stage for a minimum near the historical September 2 average of 17.6 °C. Trader consensus splits evenly between 17 °C or below and exactly 18 °C because ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create a narrow uncertainty band around that threshold, while warmer recent days have not yet produced significant carryover heat. With resolution expected by early morning observations, any upward revision in dew points or cloud cover could shift the outcome toward 19 °C, whereas continued clear, calm conditions would lock in the lower range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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