Latest ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 1 near 17–19°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows have recently reached the mid-teens amid dry continental air, supporting market-implied odds favoring 16°C or below as the leading outcome while capping downside risk given the seasonal baseline and lack of cold advection. Traders monitor the final 48-hour model runs and any revisions to boundary-layer humidity or wind patterns ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
16°C or below 48%
26°C or higher 39%
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
48%
17°C
30%
18°C
29%
19°C
24%
20°C
22%
21°C
20%
22°C
20%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
39%
16°C or below 48%
26°C or higher 39%
17°C 30%
18°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 1 near 17–19°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows have recently reached the mid-teens amid dry continental air, supporting market-implied odds favoring 16°C or below as the leading outcome while capping downside risk given the seasonal baseline and lack of cold advection. Traders monitor the final 48-hour model runs and any revisions to boundary-layer humidity or wind patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 1 near 17–19°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows have recently reached the mid-teens amid dry continental air, supporting market-implied odds favoring 16°C or below as the leading outcome while capping downside risk given the seasonal baseline and lack of cold advection. Traders monitor the final 48-hour model runs and any revisions to boundary-layer humidity or wind patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 1 near 17–19°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit strong radiative cooling. Overnight lows have recently reached the mid-teens amid dry continental air, supporting market-implied odds favoring 16°C or below as the leading outcome while capping downside risk given the seasonal baseline and lack of cold advection. Traders monitor the final 48-hour model runs and any revisions to boundary-layer humidity or wind patterns ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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